Maize (Zea mays), commonly known as corn, is a major cereal crop grown in Africa and a cornerstone of the continent's agricultural economy. It serves as both a staple food crop and a vital contributor to rural livelihoods and national food security. For over 300 million people in sub-Saharan Africa, maize is their main food source, accounting for more than 30% of caloric intake in many countries.
Africa's population is projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, which will raise structural demand for calorie-dense staples like maize. The sharp increase in maize demand between now and 2050 (+233%) will add further pressure on expanding maize area or require costly imports, which is a concern given the limited monetary reserves of most countries in the region and recent shocks in commodity prices.
Despite its importance, maize production in Africa faces numerous challenges, including low yields, climate change impacts, and post-harvest losses. However, significant opportunities exist to improve maize production through the adoption of improved agronomic practices, technology, and policy reforms.
Challenges and Opportunities in Maize Cultivation
A substantial body of evidence shows that the average maize yield (2 tons per hectare) is five times less than the yield potential as determined by the climate and soils that prevail in SSA maize-producing areas. Hence, an opportunity exists for SSA to produce substantially more maize on current cropland by narrowing the existing yield gap. Such an approach can help avoid maize imports and alleviate pressure to expand cropland at the expense of natural ecosystems and the cultivation of marginal lands.
Quantifying the impact of agronomic technologies on farmer yields across a large geographic area is difficult given the multitude of variables that can influence yield and their interactions with climate and soils. Previous studies in SSA have relied on a relatively small number of field surveys, typically exploring a narrow range of management practices and environments, and/or field trials focusing on individual practices.
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Analysis of large farmers’ field databases, complemented with fine-resolution climate, soil, and terrain information, can help identify suites of management practices that consistently lead to higher yield in a given environment. In turn, this approach can help prioritize investments in AR&D programs towards those practices that are more effective at increasing farmer yield and orient policy to facilitate their adoption across different socio-economic contexts.
Identification of yield-improving management practices in maize systems in SSA can re-orient researchers, policymakers, and donors toward solutions for increasing maize production, without large maize area expansion or reliance on costly imports.
Key Agronomic Practices for Yield Improvement
Our analysis based on the stratification of maize fields by climate zones and conditional inference tree models revealed several agronomic practices that explained variation in yield among farmer fields across production environments (Fig. 3; Fig. S12). These practices included nutrient rate and placement, use of hybrids, sowing date, weed and pest control, and plant density.
Higher yields were associated with higher rates of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertilizer, proper fertilizer placement (in a hole instead of surface application), use of hybrids instead of open-pollinated varieties, early sowing dates, higher plant densities, and effective pest control.
We also detected synergistic effects among these practices. For example, the yield benefit associated with hybrids was largest when the crop was sowed early, and N fertilizer rates were high (e.g., climate zone #2 in Fig. S12). Conversely, we could not detect any impact of hybrid traits on on-farm yields (e.g., crop cycle duration, year of release, and disease tolerance). We suspect that poor agronomic management overrides the impact of genetic traits on yield.
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An additional analysis based on machine learning confirmed the positive impact of these agronomic practices and provided insights into their individual response functions and other factors that can be tuned to further increase yields such as weeding (Fig. 4).
Our analysis of farmer data allowed us to identify suites of management practices that lead to consistent yield improvement across environments (Fig. 5). Farmers following the lowest technological level got an average yield of 1.8 t ha−1, which is similar to the average maize yield in the region and SSA1. For example, farmers who had sowed hybrids and applied relatively high N fertilizer rates (ca. 50 kg ha−1) attained yields that were 61% higher than the baseline (Fig. 5). An additional yield increase was apparent for farmers who had also sowed earlier and increased plant density, with a resulting yield of 4.3 t ha−1, which, in turn, was 2.4 times higher than the baseline yield. Thus, the adoption of improved management practices can narrow the yield gap by ca. 30%, which is equivalent to 2.5 t ha−1.
In principle, one would expect our findings to be applicable to other maize-producing regions in SSA given the similarity in soil and climate conditions between them and our study area (Figs. S3 and S4). Thus, we extrapolated the relative yield gap closure derived from the adoption of improved agronomic practices in our study area as shown in Fig. 3 (i.e., use of hybrid, higher N and density, and early sowing) to the entire maize area in SSA (see “Methods” section and Supplementary Note 2.1). Our analysis showed that adoption of improved agronomic management at the regional level would increase current SSA maize output from 80 million tons to 168 million tons on existing maize area (Table 1). This scenario will allow the region to come near self-sufficiency for maize by the year 2050, drastically reducing land and import requirements.
On the other hand, if current rates of yield improvement persist in the future, the region will not be able to meet domestic demand on existing cropland, requiring an additional 28 million hectares of land or 76 million tons of maize imports to meet the demand. In turn, pressure on cropland expansion will put at risk natural ecosystems and drive crop production into marginal environments.
How to manage your maize for super high yield
Top 10 Maize-Producing Countries in Africa (2025 Estimates)
Here's a glimpse into the top maize-producing countries in Africa, showcasing their estimated production outputs for 2025:
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- Nigeria: 15.8 million metric tons
- South Africa: 15.8 million metric tons
- Ghana: 5.3 million metric tons
- Zambia: 4.9 million metric tons
- Angola: 4.4 million metric tons
- Uganda: 4.1 million metric tons
- Malawi: 3.6 million metric tons
- Ethiopia: 3.4 million metric tons
- Tanzania: 2.6 million metric tons
- Cameroon: 2.2 million metric tons
These countries are driving growth through policy reform, agritech adoption, and climate-smart practices, setting the stage for a more resilient and self-sufficient agricultural future.
The Role of Technology and Innovation
One technology that has become increasingly popular is solar-powered irrigation systems. Njiru is also seeing a change in the way that farmers are approaching their crops, from crop rotation to more investment in technologies like solar irrigation.
Fertilizer and seed subsidies in Kenya and Nigeria reduce production costs by as much as 50% and spur rapid acreage expansion. Digital e-voucher schemes improve targeting accuracy, curbing historical leakages and corruption . Despite financial challenges, effectively designed government programs promote technology adoption and generate positive outcomes.
The Future of Maize Cultivation in Africa
Maize remains the chart-topper and - for better or for worse - it will continue to be a staple crop for hundreds of millions of people across dozens of countries in Africa for many years to come. "When I think about food systems and food security, the word that comes to mind is resilience," says Njiru.
| Scenario | Maize Output (Million Tons) | Land Required (Million Hectares) | Maize Imports (Million Tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Improved Agronomic Management | 168 | Current Maize Area | Reduced |
| Current Yield Improvement Rates | Current Output + Increase | Additional 28 | 76 |
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