South Africa has experienced significant demographic shifts over the past few decades. This article delves into South Africa's fertility rate statistics, exploring historical trends, contributing factors, and comparisons with other African nations.
Understanding these dynamics is crucial for comprehending the socio-economic landscape of the country.
Historical Population Trends
The historical population of South Africa has seen considerable growth, particularly in recent decades. Here's a look at the population changes over time:
| Year | Population | ±% p.a. |
|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 300,000 | - |
| 1500 | 600,000 | +0.14% |
| 1600 | 700,000 | +0.15% |
| 1700 | 1,000,000 | +0.36% |
| 1820 | 1,550,000 | +0.37% |
| 1870 | 2,547,000 | +1.00% |
| 1904 | 5,175,463 | +2.11% |
| 1911 | 5,972,757 | +2.07% |
| 1913 | 6,153,000 | +1.50% |
| 1921 | 6,927,403 | +1.49% |
| 1936 | 9,587,863 | +2.19% |
| 1946 | 11,415,925 | +1.76% |
| 1950 | 13,683,162 | +4.63% |
| 1955 | 15,384,557 | +2.37% |
| 1960 | 17,396,367 | +2.49% |
| 1970 | 22,502,502 | +2.61% |
| 1980 | 29,077,143 | +2.60% |
| 1990 | 36,793,490 | +2.38% |
| 1995 | 41,426,810 | +2.40% |
| 2001 | 44,819,777 | +1.32% |
| 2007 | 48,502,063 | +1.32% |
| 2011 | 51,770,560 | +1.64% |
| 2016 | 55,653,654 | +1.46% |
| 2022 | 62,027,503 | +1.82% |
According to the 2019 revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects, South Africa's total population was 55,386,000 in 2015, compared to only 13,628,000 in 1950.
The South African population has grown significantly over the last 10 years, with the latest Census counting 62m people across 17.8-million households.
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Fertility Rate Trends
In South Africa, women give birth, on average, to 2.33 children in their lifetimes. Half of the global population live where the fertility rate is below 2.1 births per woman over a lifetime, which is the level of fertility at which a population replaces itself from one generation to the next.
Our birth rate has fallen consistently (with the exception of the years 2004 to 2008) since 1950 with the current birth rate in 2024 at 18.8 births per 1000 people, half of what it was in 1974 (37.5). Currently an estimated 1.2-million babies are born every year in South Africa.
The reasons for the dramatic decline in birth rates during the past few decades include postponed family formation and childbearing and a decrease in desired family sizes, but also improved medical care (especially birth control), sanitation, water supply, diet and lower child mortality.
Factors Influencing Fertility Rates
Several factors influence fertility rates in South Africa:
- Socio-economic factors: Overall, babies are being born to less affluent households, and households with children under 3 years are over indexed in lower income brackets (R1 - R9 999 per month) and lower LSMs (LSM 1-6).
- Age of marriage: The age at which people are getting married has increased with the median age for brides increasing from 31 in 2015 to 33 in 2021, while bridegrooms’ median age has gone up from 36 to 37 over the same period.
- Births outside of marriage: Although marriage is a factor, a large proportion of children are born outside of marriage.
- Geographic distribution: Almost half of all the births in any given year occur in Gauteng and KZN, consistent with South Africa’s population distribution. However, the data indicates that the births per population are higher in more rural provinces, such as KZN, Limpopo and the Northern Cape.
- Cost of raising children: The cost of having children has skyrocketed over the past few decades. A recent BusinessTech article quoted a MiWayLife finding that first-time parents in SA spend on average around R100,000 per year to raise a child.
“The changing structure of South African households is affected by all these factors and over time has resulted in a very different looking South Africa.
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What declining birth rates mean for the world | BBC News
Comparison with Other African Nations
Southern Africa comprises a zone where the total fertility rate is below 6 births per woman. To the north is a ring of countries with higher fertility and relatively low contraceptive prevalence rates.
An overview of trends in the total fertility rate in Southern Africa is presented along with a comparison between the experiences of South Africa, Botswana, Lesotho,k Swaziland, and Zimbabwe and neighboring countries in central Africa (Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zambia). A profile of each country is given.
Sub-Saharan Africa has barely begun its fertility or population decline, and the reasons why are suggested. It is posited that stable governments are related to successful family planning (FP) efforts, however, except for Angola and Mozambique, the referenced African countries have had stability.
Implementation is another problem. In Zambia, transportation is difficult. There is lack of method choice and supply difficulties. Urban health services may receive the bulk of funding and rural health services are neglected. Abortion is illegal in many countries. Religious beliefs may be involved. Teenage pregnancy is of general concern throughout the region.
Although the FP approaches have been different in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and South Africa, the programs have successfully made services available.
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