Morocco Earthquake: Details, Impact, and Analysis

On the evening of September 8th, 2023, Morocco experienced a significant seismic event with a magnitude of 6.8. The earthquake marked the deadliest seismic event in Morocco since the 1960 Agadir earthquake. The quake is the worst the country has suffered in decades and the full scale of its damage is yet to be understood.

Following the event, many questions have surfaced: why an earthquake of this magnitude occurred in this region, what its impact was, whether it could have been predicted, what strategies can be used to reduce the risks of similar events, and if there’s any connection between climate change and earthquakes.

More than 2,900 people were killed and 5,500 people injured in the shallow magnitude-6.8 temblor and its aftershocks. The earthquake heavily damaged parts of the ancient section of Marrakech and devastated several remote settlements in the Atlas Mountains. It was felt as far away as Morocco’s largest city, Casablanca, and in Portugal and Algeria.

The areas hardest hit by the earthquake were located along rugged, hard-to-reach hillsides and valleys in Al Haouz province.

Earthquake Details

• Date and Time: September 8, 2023, at 23:11 DST (22:11 UTC)
• Magnitude: 6.9
• Epicenter: Approximately 45 miles (72 km) southwest of Marrakech, in Morocco’s Al Haouz province. Near the town of Ighil and the Oukaïmeden ski resort in the Atlas Mountains.
• Depth: 11.2 miles (18 km) below the surface

The main shock was followed by a magnitude-4.9 aftershock about 20 minutes later. Hundreds of aftershocks have been recorded, with the highest being a 5.9 quake.

The earthquake’s focus occurred at a depth of only 11.2 miles (18 km) below the surface, according to the United States Geological Survey, which produced stronger shaking at the surface than it would have had it been deeper.

The earthquake's epicenter was 73.4 km (45.6 mi) southwest of Marrakesh, near the town of Ighil and the Oukaïmeden ski resort in the Atlas Mountains.

Tectonic Setting

The earthquake’s epicenter was located within the northwestern portion of the African Plate approximately 342 miles (550 km) south of the boundary between the African and Eurasian tectonic plates.

Morocco is located at the boundary of the African and Eurasian tectonic plates, which are converging each other at a speed of between 4 and 6 mm/year. The area where the plates meet is highly seismically active, which has resulted in several earthquakes occurring in the Rif region and the Alboran Sea (such as the Al Hoceima earthquake in 2004).

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The African Plate, whose northwestern boundary extends underneath the western Mediterranean Sea, is moving northward about 0.2-0.4 inches (about 4-10 mm) per year; however, at the site of the earthquake, the African Plate is moving in a west-southwesterly direction about 0.1 inch (3.6 mm) per year.

Stresses created by this complex compressional and shearing environment have produced a tight cluster of faults underlaying the High Atlas Mountains.

Geologists noted that the buildup of compressional stress produced by the subduction of one side of a fault under another generated the earthquake, and rock fracturing along this fault released much of the stress-which forced one side of a reverse fault upward with respect to the other.

The High Atlas is a mountainous area marked by several reverse faults and characterised as having “moderate risk” by seismic models. A reverse fault is a geological phenomenon that occurs when tectonic plates collide, and the Earth’s crust thickens. Earthquakes occur when rocks abruptly shift to release the stress that has accumulated along these fault lines.

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Initial estimates suggest that the upward moving block was raised up to 5.6 feet (1.7 meters) along a 19-mile- (30-km-) long section of the earthquake-producing fault.

The area that caused the 2023 earthquake is located several hundred kilometres south of the boundary, which means that the earthquake occurred away from the tectonic plate boundary. Here studies have identified the presence of faults considered to be active and have estimated a deformation rate of less than 1 mm/year.

This difference in displacement speed implies that the accumulation of constraints in the Atlas chain takes longer than in the North to generate an earthquake of this magnitude.

Impact and Damage

Damage in the earthquake zone was extensive, especially in remote mountain villages in Morocco’s Al Haouz province. In this region, nearly all of the houses and other buildings were constructed using unreinforced brick and masonry, and local building standards were either lax or went largely unenforced.

• Casualties: More than 2,900 deaths and 5,500 injuries reported.
• Infrastructure: Substantial damage to buildings and infrastructure, with reports of 1500 to 2000 affected structures.
• Affected Areas: High Atlas Mountains, Marrakech, and surrounding regions.

In Amizmiz, a town located in the mountains about 20 miles (about 32 km) northeast of the earthquake’s epicenter, the devastation was particularly severe; much of the town was leveled. Some small settlements also endured catastrophic losses; the town of Tafeghaghte, located about 1 mile (1.6 km) from Amizmiz, was also reduced to rubble, the earthquake killing more than 90 of its residents and shattering all but a few of the town’s 100 houses.

Since most of the buildings in Marrakech had been constructed according to modern building standards, most of the city suffered little or no damage; however, several walls and other structures in the city’s historic medina district, which dates to the 11th century, either collapsed or were heavily damaged.

Countless historic sites were destroyed, damaged or threatened by the quake. Some dated back to the days of the North African Almohad Caliphate that made Marrakech its capital. Marrakech’s crown jewel, the famous Kutubiyya Mosque, shook violently during the quake. The Kharbouch Mosque, a small place of worship on a corner of the sprawling Jemaa el-Fna square, was almost entirely destroyed. The 900-year-old Walls of Marrakech were battered by the quake, leaving visible cracks and crumbling portions. Perched above a village of the same name, the Tinmal Mosque is a leading example of 12th century Almohad architecture. It boasted intricate brickwork, archways and carved motifs. The building was severely damaged, its walls and edifice lying in ruins.

Geological Survey (USGS) quickly published a map of the impact of the event from station data, online reports (Did You Feel It) and modelling from the characteristics of the rupture. Here, 2 metrics were used:

• The peak ground acceleration (PGA in g), which is regularly used as a reference by engineers for the design of beams.
• And the macrosismic intensity, which translates the effects of the earthquake to a given point (which we will explain below).

The analysis of the USGS intensity map for this earthquake indicates that it was felt as far north as southern Spain and Lisbon (Intensity II to III, corresponding to low vibrations). It also generated V to VI intensity (middle to strong tremors and slight damage) more than 150 km from the epicentre, as in Agadir. Closer to the epicenter intensities above VIII have been estimated, consistent with all images of collapsed buildings by the various media.

In order to model the effects of earthquakes or their intensity scientists use the analysis of past earthquakes specific to a particular geographical area. The initial estimates obtained for this earthquake suggest that much greater effects were observed than would usually be expected. As a result, it seems that this event has had a greater impact than we would have expected.

Relief and Recovery Efforts

The areas hardest hit by the earthquake were located along rugged, hard-to-reach hillsides and valleys in Al Haouz province. Many of the region’s mountain roads, which were largely considered poor quality under normal conditions, were made impassable by boulders and other debris produced by earthquake-driven landslides. These obstacles stymied relief efforts, greatly slowing the movement of rescue teams, emergency services, and heavy equipment.

In the days following the earthquake, the Moroccan government was criticized for its management of the disaster recovery. Some earthquake survivors grew impatient with the perceived lack of effort by the government to bring in relief supplies or search-and-rescue teams to reach loved ones still trapped in the rubble.

The Moroccan government faced additional criticism for its decision to accept disaster recovery assistance only from certain countries. While search-and-rescue teams and relief organizations from Spain, Qatar, Britain, and the United Arab Emirates were allowed to enter the country, those from other countries-including France, Germany, Tunisia, Canada, and the United States-were not.

The Moroccan government noted that this decision was made so as to avoid complicating ongoing relief efforts with traffic bottlenecks on the limited road network within the earthquake zone. The government later clarified their position, stating that all aid was welcome, but it needed to enter the country through proper channels to allow for coordination in the most efficient manner possible.

The government responded to criticism that they were not taking all the offered assistance by pointing out the logistical challenges in moving large numbers of people to remote and rural villages. Morocco also has bad memories of chaotic international aid that followed another deadly quake in 2004.

Moroccan Red Crescent teams provided physical and mental health care support, including transportation to hospitals for people with injuries.

UN OCHA said, “His Majesty King Mohammed VI has instructed his government to expeditiously continue field relief efforts and provide care to the victims of the earthquake.

On Sept. 15, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, spoke to reporters in Geneva and said, “the country has a distinguished history of building up and investing in its own response capacities, as well as the incredible generosity of local organizations and volunteers from across the country.

The Moroccan Government has mobilized tremendous resources to respond to the earthquake, pulling survivors from the rubble, providing medical care and distributing essential aid.

Morocco did not issue an appeal for international assistance, instead, it selected which international offers of support it would take.

The United Kingdom's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office also added it would provide £1.45 million to address the immediate needs and long-term recovery.

• Poor road conditions
• Remote and rural villages
• Coordination of international aid

Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

Despite increasing technologies, it is still impossible to predict the occurrence of an earthquake effectively and accurately today. Earthquakes primarily occur along tectonic plate boundaries, but the intricate and dynamic nature of these fault systems makes it difficult to predict specific events.

The fault’s behaviour can change over time, and it’s hard to predict which part will rupture next. Unlike weather patterns or other natural phenomena, earthquakes do not exhibit consistent precursor patterns that can be monitored. There are no reliable early warning signs that can indicate when and where an earthquake will occur.

Some regions like California and Mexico are equipped with a warning network to quickly alert population of the arrival of seismic waves. This system is heavily dependent on a dense network of seismic stations, and it enables citizens to receive an alert only a few seconds or minutes before the arrival of the waves (depending on the location of the epicentre).

In the absence of a reliable and dense warning system, probabilistic seismic hazard maps are established which can be used for risk reduction, enabling areas to establish mitigation strategies and emergency response plans. The Global Earthquake model is a global hazard map that provides a view of the earthquake threat worldwide.

Seismic agitation is the possibility of being exposed to seismic shocks of given characteristics (Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) or intensity) for a specified period of time. The benchmark for this map is set by determining a 10% probability of exceeding a PGA level over the next 50 years.

Hazard maps allow engineers to have an indication for improving the resilience of populations and buildings to earthquakes.

While scientists can monitor seismic activity and detect gradual changes in stress, these signals are often subtle and may not lead to a specific earthquake event. Interpreting this data accurately and predicting the precise location, magnitude, and timing of an earthquake is extremely challenging.

Also, earth’s geological conditions are highly diverse. The complexities of different rock types, fault structures, and stress accumulation make it challenging to develop a universal predictive model for all regions.

Risk Reduction Strategies

While it remains impossible to reduce the risk altogether, it is possible to prepare for these risks by establishing financial support with risk transfer solutions. The objective is to help the most vulnerable populations and support the reconstruction of damaged areas.

For example, the Morocco Integrated Disaster Risk Management and Resilience Program has prepared for an earthquake scenario in 2 ways:

1. The Morocco’s Fund for the Fight against Natural Catastrophes (FLCN) is a national resilience fund. As of March 2022, the fund had supported 180 disaster risk reduction projects, for a total investment volume of US$304 million. Completed structural projects have supported more than 174,000 direct beneficiaries across the national territory.
2. The adoption in 2018 of an innovative disaster risk insurance regime. This programme introduced a private insurance scheme covering close to 9 million people and established a public solidarity fund (FSEC), separate from the FLCN, targeted at the poorest and most vulnerable households (an estimated 6 million people). The combined private and public schemes can provide about US$100 million in compensation every year.