In today’s dynamic global security environment, the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria may not make headlines, but it is an important issue to understand. Morocco, a partner and ally of the United States since 1786, has had a long rivalry with its neighbor Algeria, an anti-colonial, anti-Western partner to Russia and China. Its military buildup and active diplomatic maneuvering are not coincidental.
To understand the nature of this rivalry, a brief history lesson is in order. Morocco and Algeria share a common Berber cultural and linguistic heritage, and they were both conquered by Islamic armies in the 7th century, beginning the process of Islamization and Arabization. Both countries were also dominated by France beginning in the 19th century, but that is where their histories started to differ.
The French army conquered Algeria from 1803 to 1847 and essentially annexed it, making it a province of France proper rather than just a colony. This would have serious implications for Algeria’s future; the French exercised tighter control of Algeria than they would have over a colony, and they saw it as an integral part of their nation.
Prior to the 20th century, the border between Morocco and Algeria was never delineated. The area was remote and largely uninhabited. Then, in 1903, the French authorities in Algeria began to expand westward, laying claim to Bechar and Tindouf-both areas the Moroccans saw as traditionally belonging to the Moroccan crown. This was the status quo until 1956, when Morocco gained independence from France. Morocco demanded that Bechar and Tindouf be returned, and the French refused. Six years later, Algeria won its independence after a bloody struggle against France.
Morocco then saw an opportunity to regain its lost territories, as the Algerian military was diminished after years of guerilla warfare. Limited skirmishes escalated into war in September 1963, with initial Moroccan advances grounding to a halt in October in the face of stubborn Algerian resistance. While the Sand War was brief, it set a negative tone that has colored Moroccan-Algerian relations ever since.
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The most significant ramification of this has been the issue of Western Sahara, a region located between southern Morocco and Mauritania, which Morocco sees as an integral part of its traditional kingdom. The flashpoint of the conflict is the territory known as Western Sahara, which favors autonomy and enjoys Algerian political-military support, but which Morocco sees as an integral part of its kingdom. The Sahrawis (inhabitants of Western Sahara) reject Morocco’s claim, and they launched a campaign for independence when Spain withdrew its colonial claims in 1975.
Consequently, Morocco organized the “Green March,” in which 350,000 Moroccans marched into Western Sahara as an act of mass protest against Sahrawi independence claims, effectively annexing the territory into Morocco, where it remains to this day. In response, the Sahrawis established the Polisario Front as a political-military organization to advance its quest for independence. Algeria, already at odds with Morocco over the border dispute and a champion of popular independence movements worldwide, began supporting the Polisario Front both financially and militarily. Additionally, Algeria welcomed large numbers of Sahrawis in refugee camps in Tindouf.
Since it gained independence from France, Morocco has developed a special relationship with the United States. The United States designated Morocco as a major non-NATO ally in 2004, and the two countries signed a Free Trade Agreement in 2006. In 2020, both the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed bilateral agreements, brokered by the Trump administration, to normalize their diplomatic relations with Israel.
While Morocco escaped the worst of French colonialism and cast its lot in with the United States, Algeria suffered an extremely bloody war for independence that has influenced its perception of the outside world ever since. Militarily, Algeria maintains the second largest standing army in Africa, second only to Egypt. It has the continent’s largest defense budget: $16.7 billion in 2023. It has sourced roughly 75 percent of its arsenal from the former Soviet Union and, secondarily, from China.
In response to Morocco’s military modernization with the United States, Algeria signed a large contract with Russia in 2022 for submarines, Su-57 (Sukhoi) stealth aircraft, Su-34 bombers and Su-30 fighters. Algeria is also an important part of China’s Mediterranean strategy as part of its Belt and Road Initiative. Chinese investment will expand from traditional sectors, such as basic infrastructure and energy, and the primary contractor for building railways, ports and mosques, to emerging areas like aerospace, telecommunications and new energy.
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Prior to his resignation in 2019, Algeria’s longtime President Abdelaziz Bouteflika started building what will be the world’s largest mosque in Algiers and awarded the contract to a Chinese firm. The military buildup is not the only reason the rivalry has escalated in recent years. Several factors have emerged that have strengthened Algeria’s diplomatic position.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compelled Europe to look elsewhere for its energy security, especially when it comes to natural gas. This has been an unexpected windfall for Algeria, which is rich in natural gas reserves and relatively close to Europe. In 2022, the International Monetary Fund estimated that Algeria recorded its first budget surplus in nine years, swelling international reserves to $53.5 billion (up $6.8 billion from 2021).
The new Algerian government of Adelmajid Tebboune has taken other steps that have brought the country out of its long diplomatic isolation. For example, in 2020, the Algerian constitution was amended to allow the deployment of the armed forces outside the country. The move was made ostensibly to allow Algeria to intervene in Libya, if necessary, but constitutional revisions also allow participation in peacekeeping operations under the Arab League, the United Nations (UN) and-perhaps most important-the African Union (AU).
The Western Sahara Conflict, Explained
Algeria’s increased participation in AU peacekeeping missions is significant because it can be seen as a direct snub against Morocco, which rejoined the group in 2017 after a long absence. Morocco had hoped to use AU membership to advance its own interests vis-à-vis Western Sahara and to improve its standing among African nations, but Algeria’s move to lift its self-imposed restrictions will limit Morocco’s ability to accomplish its goals. Additionally, Algeria submitted its application to join the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) group of emerging economies in 2022 and hosted an Arab League summit, where it took a pro-Palestinian stance critical of Morocco’s rapprochement with the Jewish state.
So how might a resurgent Algeria threaten Morocco? Algeria is taking a temporary seat on the UN Security Council (UNSC) in 2024-2025, which will enable it to use new mechanisms to try to reframe the Western Sahara issue. The Algerians are also likely to attempt a reform of the UNSC to give African nations a more prominent voice. Neither country wants war, nor would they benefit from it. There will continue to be regular provocations, however.
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These will likely range from rhetoric at international fora to expensive military exercises along their shared border as shows of force. But escalation will be unavoidable if any further incidents lead to deaths on either side. As Morocco and Algeria disagree more vocally on the international stage, both sides will continue to back up their diplomatic talk by projecting strength.
In 2022, the two countries accounted for 74 percent of all military spending in North Africa, with Algeria allocating $9.1 billion to its armed forces and Morocco spending $5 billion, according to figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). While Algeria has kept mostly constant levels of spending, Morocco’s military expenditure has doubled since 2005. It has focused increasingly on armed unmanned aerial systems, acquiring the MQ-9B Guardian drone from the United States and other models from Israel and Turkey.
These rising tensions have the potential to put the United States in a precarious position. It needs Algeria to remain a viable and economic alternative natural gas source for Europe. Without it, already high energy costs will increase even more, and European governments will be hard pressed to ask their citizens to continue supporting the war in Ukraine. Likewise, the Biden administration has continued to support the UN-led process to resolve the Western Sahara dispute while also upholding its recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the territory to preserve the diplomatic progress made between Morocco and Israel.
However, the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war has complicated that relationship. The Morocco-Israel agreement has been strained as Moroccan support for the Palestinian cause has been rekindled. The long-standing rivalry between Morocco and Algeria has recently seen both countries making strategic use of economic tools, especially in trade and the energy sector, to project power, forge new alliances, and engage in strong-arm tactics against European countries. Essentially, Algeria and Morocco are employing economic statecraft to carve out regional leadership roles for themselves in North and West Africa. The result is competing, yet at times also overlapping, spheres of influence. This ongoing development risks fuelling instability.
Indeed, as the rivalry between Morocco and Algeria deepens and assumes new dimensions, two key consequences are likely to emerge. The first is increased tension with European partners, particularly between France and Algeria owing to France’s newfound support for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, a stance that not only deepens current frictions but also reactivates long-standing grievances rooted in the colonial past. The second is growing volatility in the Sahel, as Algeria and Morocco each attempt to shift the balance in their favor on the issue of the Western Sahara, over which they have long been at odds.
Both Algeria and Morocco have taken to using natural resources and commerce as a tool for furthering their strategic ambitions. Algeria is establishing itself as a key player in Europe’s long-term energy security by asserting its position in the energy market of the future, which includes both the production of green hydrogen and the supply of fossil fuels. To do this, it uses energy to forge closer political and economic ties with Italy and Germany-and gain leverage with them.
Additionally, Algeria has turned its trade policy and its status as a major importer of food products, particularly cereals, into a form of economic pressure, sending a clear message that access to the Algerian market will increasingly be conditioned on geopolitical alignment.
Morocco’s energy strategy has two primary objectives: to guarantee long-term domestic energy security and to improve its international standing through clean energy exports. Over the past twenty years, Morocco has consistently invested in solar, wind, and hydropower, as well as, more recently, green hydrogen. The country now ranks among Africa’s top five producers of renewable energy. Although not a fossil fuel exporter, Morocco is using renewables to compete in the energy landscape and is capitalizing on its strategic geographic position and economic dynamism to attract investors.
The View from Algeria
The shock caused to the world’s energy markets by the war in Ukraine offered Algeria a golden opportunity to establish itself as one of Europe’s most prominent energy partners. Algiers filled the void left by the natural gas that EU countries had previously purchased from Russia and leveraged this economic boon into political influence. The redrawing of European gas supply lines has positioned Algeria as a strategic energy partner for Europe, allowing it to advance its interests at a critical moment.
The disruption of Russian gas supplies in the wake of the Ukraine war and the collapse of Libya’s energy output led Rome to shift its energy policy focus decisively toward Algiers.Algeria’s economic statecraft incorporates coercive elements in addition to cooperation. Algiers’ willingness to weaponize its energy exports was made clear by the deterioration of its relations with Rabat in 2021 over the Western Sahara dispute. The Maghreb-Europe Gas Pipeline, which had previously shipped Algerian gas to Spain via Morocco, was closed by Algiers that year.
The action was both punitive and strategic, depriving Rabat of a portion of its energy supply and substantial transit fees during a period of economic strain caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and worldwide inflation. Algeria signalled its determination to use infrastructure control as a geopolitical tool, thereby compelling Morocco to find alternative energy sources.
Algiers has adopted a similar approach when it comes to the food trade, especially the import of wheat. For example, in 2019, up to 5 million tons of soft wheat, amounting to $1 billion in trade, were imported by Algeria from France, making it one of the latter’s most successful years for wheat export. However, due to France’s growing and open support for Morocco’s plans for the Western Sahara (limited autonomy instead of a referendum on independence), Algeria began reorienting its procurement strategy toward Russian and Eastern European suppliers.
The View from Morocco
Although not historically a major player in the energy market, Morocco has recognized that the evolving geopolitics of energy presents it with new opportunities to assert its influence in North Africa. Seizing what it sees as a “green window of opportunity,” the kingdom has accelerated investments in renewable energy not only to secure its own energy future, but also to position itself as a green energy hub. An excellent illustration of this effort is Rabat’s green hydrogen roadmap, which was unveiled in 2021. The goal of the plan is to make the country a major supplier of hydrogen to domestic industries, such as fertilizer producers, as well as international markets.
Morocco still makes massive use of coal for most of its electricity. In order to transition entirely to renewable alternatives, the country will need to invest heavily in energy generation, storage, and infrastructure upgrades. The success or failure of the green hydrogen strategy will also depend on global demand, competitive pricing, and sustained political will in European capitals.
Moroccan statecraft is not limited to energy. Clamping down on undocumented migrants making their way to Europe through Morocco and attracting major infrastructure investment have both become key negotiating tools, especially with Spain and France. After years of insisting that the future of the Western Sahara should be determined by a popular referendum in the territory itself, Madrid reversed course in 2022 and backed Morocco’s plan for granting the region limited autonomy.
The reason for this about-face was Madrid’s desire to secure Rabat’s cooperation in curbing the flow of irregular migrants to the Spanish North African enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla, as well as the Canary Islands, in 2020 and 2021.
Escalating Rivalry in a Fragmented Region
The long-standing rivalry between Algeria and Morocco has entered a new and more antagonistic phase. For one thing, it has spread beyond North Africa and into the more unstable regions of the Sahel and West Africa. Both countries have taken steps to carve out spheres of influence through a combination of diplomacy, economic statecraft, and strategic alliances. And, for another, the rivalry has evolved into a zero-sum game, whereby one country’s gain is perceived as the other’s loss. The move by France and Spain toward endorsing Morocco’s position on the Western Sahara has accelerated this phenomenon by emboldening Rabat and angering Algiers.
The Western Sahara issue lies at the heart of the Algerian-Moroccan rivalry, shaping the strategic calculations and foreign policies of both states. For Morocco, securing international recognition of its sovereignty over the territory is a cornerstone of its national agenda and regional diplomacy. Algeria, in contrast, views support for the separatist Sahrawi cause as a matter of principle tied to anti-colonial solidarity and regional balance. This fundamental disagreement has fueled decades of mistrust and competition, transforming the Western Sahara into both a symbolic and a strategic battleground. As international positions shift and the UN-led peace process remains stalled, the issue continues to feed escalating tensions between the two neighbors.
Additionally, a new competitive frontier has emerged in the Sahel as a result of Moroccan-Algerian differences. Morocco and Algeria are both attempting to take advantage of each other’s failures. As Algiers’ power declines, Rabat is gaining ground. However, this is not the end of the game and the future remains very uncertain. Particularly in areas such as the Sahel, where institutions are weak, borders are porous, and alliances are brittle, Morocco and Algeria’s overlapping spheres of influence raise the possibility of conflict.
Algeria is actively attempting to reshape regional alliances in North Africa by advocating for a new Maghreb bloc that does not include Morocco. For its part, Morocco has sought to expand its influence in West Africa and the Sahel through long-term investments, economic diplomacy, and pragmatic engagement, a strategy exemplified by King Mohammed VI’s 2023 announcement of Rabat’s Atlantic Initiative.
Rivalry between Morocco and Algeria Intensifies
The rivalry between Morocco and Algeria is expanding in scope, with both countries doubling down on competing visions for regional leadership. Morocco has harnessed its growing stature as a trade and energy hub to great effect, shifting international dynamics in its favor. The mounting endorsements of its autonomy plan for Western Sahara by major Western powers, including the United Kingdom, United States, France, and Spain, are not merely diplomatic victories; they mark a strategic realignment of European interests with Rabat’s stances.
This shift has eroded Europe’s historical neutrality and redefined the parameters of international engagement with the Western Sahara conflict.Algeria, by contrast, is grappling with a receding diplomatic horizon. The country’s regional reorientation, most notably its attempt to forge a new Maghreb framework with Libya and Tunisia, marks a pivot toward self-exclusion from, rather than integration into, existing politico-economic structures.
Yet these efforts have delivered mixed results. In the Sahel, where Algeria once exercised considerable influence, its position has weakened. Tensions with Mali and Niger have deepened, further unsettling Algeria’s strategic environment. Looking ahead, the prospects for de-escalation remain dim.
The Western Sahara dispute continues to serve as the primary fault line between Morocco and Algeria, with little space for compromise and growing international momentum behind Rabat’s proposal of limited autonomy for the territory. At the same time, competing ambitions in the Sahel, and its member states’ diverging alliances with external powers, are more likely to fuel confrontation than foster cooperation.
For international partners, any move in the future that favors one side in the Morocco-Algeria dispute risks disrupting the fragile balance of power between the two, with potentially destabilizing consequences for the region. Navigating this volatile geopolitical landscape will require strategic caution and nuanced diplomacy.
The unilateral severing of Algerian and Moroccan diplomatic relations in the summer of 2021 occurred days after the President of Algeria, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, declared that the diplomatic situation between the two countries would be under review. Although the two neighboring countries share a similar culture and colonial past, Algeria and Morocco have not been the most diplomatic in relations since the independence of each of these nations from their main colonizer: France.
A major origin of the issues that arose between the two nations was Morocco’s claim to western and southern Algerian lands while also claiming to be the hegemonic power in the region. This did not sit well with Algeria, a newly independent nation that just won a bloody War of Independence against the French. For a nation that prior to their independence was viewed as an extension of mainland France, the declaration of territorial claims from Morrocco in the geographic expanse of their new nation was an affront to their nationalistic sensibilities.
This came to a head during the Sand War, a series of skirmishes on the Moroccan-Algerian Border. During the month of October 1963, Moroccan troops were consistently winning against the Algerian army and guerillas. Ahmed Ben Bella, the revolutionary leader of Algeria that helped lead Algeria to independence, highlighted a core difference between the two nation-states. With the Algerian government lauding their socialist revolutionary doctrines and ideals, Morocco stood as if a monolith with its kingdom dating back to antiquity.
The biggest source of conflict however has been the Western Sahara conflict. Since 1975, Morocco has been attempting to claim all the former Spanish territory of the Western Sahara. In 1974, Morocco began attempts to annex the region from the Spanish which included a march of 350,000 Moroccans. With these attempts, the Spanish and Moroccan Kingdoms agreed to a treaty which gave two-thirds of the territory to Morocco and one-third to Mauritania.
While Mauritania did not put much effort into reclaiming the territory in the Western Sahara, Morocco was consolidating power and control over the region. That is when the Algerian government funded and supported the Polisario Front, the militant arm of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
The King of Morocco, His Majesty Mohammed VI, has made it clear that his kingdom would not change its stances on the Western Sahara being sovereign to Morocco. While there have been flare ups, the most recent rise in tensions was when the Polisario declared the ceasefire “null and void.” This is due to a clause in The UN 1991 ceasefire where the Polisario were to be given a self-determination vote. As the truce was nullified by the Polisario Front, there have been multiple attacks resulting in six Moroccan deaths.
In November of 2021, there was an incident in which three Algerian truck drivers were killed in a bombing in the Western Sahara coming from Mauritania. Algeria has blamed the Moroccan government for the attack but the Kingdom has denied any involvement. Due to the closing of diplomatic relations, the Algerian government has cut off gas shipments that used to be sent to Europe via Morocco.
This oil used to account for 10 percent of Morocco’s energy supply for its country. The arrangement was that the oil would flow through the Gaz-Maghreb-Europe (GME) pipeline and into Spain but they have changed it to the Medgaz pipeline. The Medgaz pipeline is a smaller pipeline, usually reserved for emergencies, that bypasses the Moroccan nation and goes directly to Spain.
With ramifications that seem to be leading to detrimental security and energy consequences for not just Morocco but also Europe, it would be in the best interests to have an outside power broker the issue of relations between Morocco and Algeria.
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