The relationship between Ethiopia and Egypt is complex, intertwined with geography, resources, and historical agreements. Egypt has been threatening Ethiopia with war for over a decade, calling it an existential threat.
To calculate the distance between Egypt and Ethiopia, the place names are converted into coordinates (latitude and longitude). The respective geographic centre is used for cities, regions and countries. The shortest distance (air line) between Egypt and Ethiopia is 1,390.01 mi (2,237.00 km).
The flight distance between the nearest airports Egypt (LXR) and Ethiopia (ADD) is 1,366.77 mi (2,199.60 km). This corresponds to an approximate flight time of 3h 5min. The initial bearing on the course from Egypt to Ethiopia is 153.46° and the compass direction is SSE.
Ethiopia is slightly bigger by total area compared to Egypt: 426,373 sq mi vs 390,121 sq mi. The map above outlines the borders of Egypt and Ethiopia but is not accurate for size comparison because it's a 2d map with Mercator projection that distorts territories near the poles. The farther a country is from the equator, the more magnified it gets.
Let's delve into the geographical aspects that shape this dynamic.
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The Lifeline of Egypt: The Nile River
Egypt really is just the Nile. Most of Egypt’s 105M citizens live on the Nile. This area is filled with bright lights on the map above. But the Nile doesn’t stop with the lights. It goes all the way to the middle of Africa.
The Nile’s main tributaries are the White Nile, born in Uganda’s Lake Victoria, and the Blue Nile, born in Ethiopia’s Lake Tana. Nearly 90% of the Nile’s water comes from Ethiopia, mainly through the Blue Nile. Egypt’s 105M people depend on the water from Ethiopia. How is that possible? Let’s zoom out.
Consider the river basins of Africa:
Each color corresponds to the regions whose rivers feed into one single river.
- Some river basins are huge and take water from a vast area.
- Closer to the coasts, there are lots of small river basins: they don’t have time to converge towards one of the bigger basins.
- Interior areas tend to belong to one of these big river basins.
The big red area at the top right is the Nile.
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The Ethiopian Highlands are so elevated that they catch most of the water from the winds, and the rainfall is very heavy.
This is Ethiopia, with the highlands in the middle.
Between June and September, wet monsoon winds blowing from the Atlantic Ocean into central Africa bring water all the way to Ethiopia. Between January and March, the wetter winds blow from the Indian Ocean into southern Africa, which also brings rainfall to the eastern part of Africa.
The consequence of this is that the desert in southern Africa is in the west (Kalahari), while in the middle of Africa, the desert is in the east (Somalia).
When the winds blow, the mountains catch that water, and everything on the other side is dry, a process called the rain shadow effect. In Africa, the mountain range that catches all this rain is the Rift Valley.
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Plate tectonics in Africa are splitting the continent in two. The result is two mountain ranges with a depression in the middle called the Rift Valley. The mountain ranges from the Rift catch all the rain of the monsoon winds coming from the west. Once they pass the mountains, there’s very little water left, and that’s why Somalia is so dry.
Lake Victoria, in the center of the continent, is right in the middle of the Rift Valley. That’s why it’s a lake (it’s surrounded by mountains and their water flows into the lake), and why the surrounding area is drier than the mountainside to the west (which catches water for the Congo River).
Summarizing the key points:
- 105M Egyptians depend on the Nile to survive.
- About 90% of the water in the Nile comes from Ethiopia.
- That’s because of the Ethiopian Highlands catching almost all of the water from the monsoon winds.
- The Ethiopian Highlands are caused by the tectonic separation of Africa along the Rift Valley, which in turn ensures that Lake Victoria receives less water because it’s on the eastern side of the mountains, and that’s why most water from the Nile comes from Ethiopia and not Lake Victoria.
High altitude and lots of rainfall together make for big population centers that are poor, because the mountains make transport very hard and expensive, which means there’s very little trade and very little wealth generation.
That’s why Ethiopia has a population of 115M, bigger than Egypt’s 105M, but the country is very poor. You can’t tell that there are so many people from looking at nighttime satellite images, because they can’t afford light outside of the biggest cities.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD)
Egypt's Dam Problem: The Geopolitics of the Nile
Ethiopia is building a dam on the Blue Nile at the border with Sudan, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, or GERD for short.
The dam will be the biggest in Africa and will triple Ethiopia’s electricity power overnight. Today, the dam is 80% complete and has started the second filling of the reservoir.
Meanwhile, a few hundred miles north, that same Nile feeds 100M people downstream and gives them 15% of their electricity through a dam. Naturally, the Ethiopians have decided to build a dam too.
Now, why is Egypt so fearful of all this?
When I first read about Egypt’s threats to bomb the dam, I assumed Ethiopia was intending to take all the water. That would indeed be a reason to go to war, since Egypt’s existence would be threatened. But that’s not the case. This is mostly a hydroelectric dam, to generate cheap electricity for the entire country. Some water might indeed be used for irrigation, but I couldn’t find anything about that. So why the fear?
There are several concerns:
- Filling: During the filling period, less water will go downstream and reach Egypt. If the dam is filled very quickly, it could take so much water as to put Egypt’s crops at risk.
- Drought: If there is a prolonged drought, Ethiopia could keep the water for itself.
- Flooding: If the GERD is at risk of flooding, the dam might release so much water that it would overwhelm dams downstream.
- Evaporation: By creating a new artificial lake-the reservoir-there is more water evaporation. That means less water downstream.
All in all, these fears sound a bit exaggerated, given that there are 25 dams on the Nile. This will be the biggest, but that doesn’t change its impact all that much. In fact, it will be a positive, since the dam should make the Nile more stable.
Since that water won’t be diverted to agriculture-at least not yet-Egypt shouldn’t worry about a long-term reduction in water. Also, the evaporation of the GERD reservoir will be a fraction of the evaporation of the Aswan Dam, and will be counterbalanced by less evaporation there, so they shouldn’t be concerned about that.
The only concern could be during the filling phase, but in most scenarios that shouldn’t create any problem. Enough water will flow downstream to Egypt. On top of that, it will be able to keep using the water from the Aswan Dam.
Egypt’s anxiety stems from the fear of a nightmare scenario where the dam fills at the same time as there’s a horrible drought. Egypt’s main argument against the dam was that an old British-era agreement gave all the water rights to Egypt and Sudan. But these agreements are not just very old; Ethiopia never signed them. Ethiopia can simply build the dam and fill it.
The dam is nearly built, it’s already filling, and Egypt can’t do anything about it. The only situation in which you should start paying attention is if the Aswan Dam water levels go dangerously low. In the meantime, let’s not solve problems we don’t have.
Current Challenges in Ethiopia
At the same time, Ethiopia and Egypt have been on the brink of war for years. Egypt believes its existence is threatened by Ethiopia.
While hundreds of thousands of Ethiopians starve due to a government blockade, rebels are 250km away from the capital Addis Ababa. Last time those same rebels got there, they ousted the government and remained in power for 30 years.
Ethiopia can simply build the dam and fill it. With no control and a fear of what might happen, Egypt is having a panic attack. The only thing it can do is watch and complain.
This is exactly Ethiopia’s attitude, because it needs to focus on problems it does have: its civil war.
