Life expectancy (LE0) has long been hypothesized as an important determinant of individuals’ decisions to invest in physical and human capital and this premise of economic theory has played a central role in the study of economic development.
Life expectancy in Kenya is influenced by a variety of factors, including individual and population-level factors. Broadly speaking, life expectancy is most affected by fertility rate, deaths, immigration and emigration.
Map of Kenya showcasing its diverse regions and administrative divisions.
Historical Trends in Life Expectancy
In 1870, it is estimated that Kenyan life expectancy from birth was just 25.5 years. This low rate was in part the result of several famines and epidemics which ravaged the region throughout the late 1800s, including an epidemic in 1898, which, when combined with the coinciding famine, was estimated to have resulted in the death of over half the population of the country.
Life expectancy would increase only marginally for much of the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but saw a significant increase in the years following the end of the Second World War. Kenyan life expectancy rose by almost ten years in the late 1940s. Life expectancy would continue to steadily rise for much of the 20th century, particularly so with the implementation of universal healthcare in 1965, before peaking at almost 59 years in 1985.
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However, beginning in the late-1980s, Kenya would see life expectancy fall significantly until the early 2010s, as the HIV/AIDS epidemic led to a significant increase in mortality across the population. After bottoming out at under 52 years in 2005, life expectancy was able to recover to pre-HIV/AIDS levels by the 2010s.
Between 1980 and 2000, life expectancy stagnated at around 50 years, before rising to 54 years. Kenyans’ life expectancy is slightly above the African average (56.5 years) but it has lost ground since the late 1980s (then 60 years and not far from the global average). It declined in the 90s to 51 years, mainly due to HIV/AIDS, before recovering over the last decade.
The life expectancy in Kenya in 2016 was 69.0 for females and 64.7 for males. This has been an increment from the year 1990 when the life expectancy was 62.6 and 59.0 respectively.
The burden of disease in Kenya has mainly been from communicable diseases, but it is now shifting to also include the noncommunicable diseases and injuries.
Kenya's Life Expectancy
Key Factors Affecting Life Expectancy
Infectious Diseases
Tropical diseases, especially malaria and tuberculosis, have long been a public health problem in Kenya. In recent years, infection with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), also has become a severe problem.
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In 2004 the Kenyan Ministry of Health announced that HIV/AIDS had surpassed malaria and tuberculosis as the leading disease killer in the country. Due largely to AIDS, life expectancy in Kenya has dropped by about a decade.
In 2017, the number of people in Kenya living with HIV/AIDS was 1 500 000 and the prevalence rate was 4.8% of the total population. The prevalence rate of women aged 15 to 49 years was 6.2% which was higher than that of men 3.5% in the same age group. The incidence rate was 1.21 per 1000 population among all ages and more than 75% of the total population are on antiretroviral therapy.
Malaria remains a major public health problem in Kenya and accounts for an estimated 16 percent of outpatient consultations. Approximately 70 percent of the population is at risk for malaria, with 14 million people in endemic areas, and another 17 million in areas of epidemic and seasonal malaria. All four species of Plasmodium parasites that infect humans occur in Kenya.
Kenya has made significant progress in the fight against malaria. The Government of Kenya places a high priority on malaria control and tailors its malaria control efforts according to malaria risk to achieve maximum impact. Recent household surveys show a reduction in malaria parasite prevalence from 11 percent in 2010 to 8 percent in 2015 nationwide, and from 38 percent in 2010 to 27 percent in 2015 in the endemic area near Lake Victoria.
Mortality Causes
The leading cause of mortality in Kenya in the year 2016 included diarrhoea diseases 18.5%, HIV/AIDs 15.56%, lower respiratory infections 8.62%, tuberculosis 3.69%, ischemic heart disease 3.99%, road injuries 1.47%, interpersonal violence 1.36%.
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Apart from major disease killers, Kenya has a serious problem with death in traffic collisions. Kenya used to have the highest rate of road crashes in the world, with 510 fatal crashes per 100,000 vehicles (2004 estimate), as compared to second-ranked South Africa, with 260 fatalities, and the United Kingdom, with 20.
Maternal and Child Health
The child mortality per 1000 live birth has reduced form 98.1 in 1990 to 51 in 2015, this compares to the global statistics of child mortality which has dropped from 93 in 1990 to 41 in 2016.
The 2010 maternal mortality rate per 100,000 births for Kenya is 530, yet has been shown to be as high as 1000 in the North Eastern Province, for example. Women under 24 years of age are especially vulnerable because the risk of developing complications during pregnancy and childbirth.
Based on verbal autopsy reports from women in Nairobi slums, it was noted that most maternal deaths are directly attributed to complications such as haemorrhage, sepsis, eclampsia, or unsafe abortions. The current restrictions on abortions has led to many women receiving the procedure illegally and often via untrained staff.
Socio-Economic Factors
Income, education, and occupation are strongly correlated with life expectancy. Contextual determinants refer primarily to the influence of political commitment (policy formulation, for example), infrastructure, and women's socioeconomic status, including education, income, and autonomy.
In reference to maternal education, women with greater education are more likely to have and receive knowledge about the benefits of skilled care and preventative action-antenatal care use, for example. Women living in households unable to pay for the costs of transportation, medications, and provider fees were significantly less likely to pursue delivery services at skilled facilities.
Kenya has a diverse population with upwards of 42 ethnic groups and subgroups. The differences in language and culture that come with this extensively diverse population have been coupled with ethnic conflict and favoritism.
There are several Kenyans who primarily speak their native or regional language in addition to the two national languages. However, those who do not speak the official language may be limited in their access to civil goods. Previous research has shown that the language barriers between patients and doctors can deter patients from accessing healthcare in their communities.
Environmental and Climatic Factors
Environmental conditions can impact life expectancy. Among people aged 65 and over, heat stress-related mortality is expected to increase from 2 deaths per 100,000 per year in 1990 to 45 per 100,000 by 2080. Under a high emission scenario, climate change is expected to exacerbate diarrhea deaths, causing around 9% of such deaths for children under 15 by 2030, and 13% of such deaths by 2050. Malnutrition may rise by up to 20% by 2050.
| Cause of Death | Percentage |
|---|---|
| Diarrhoeal diseases | 18.5% |
| HIV/AIDS | 15.56% |
| Lower respiratory infections | 8.62% |
| Tuberculosis | 3.69% |
| Ischemic heart disease | 3.99% |
| Road injuries | 1.47% |
| Interpersonal violence | 1.36% |
Chart showcasing the life expectancy trends.
Recent Trends and Future Outlook
If the current trends continue, Kenya will return to its historical peak of 60 years, which it achieved in 1987, only in 2017. In other words, on this metric, Kenya has lost three decades (more than a generation).
Since 1900, humans have begun to steadily live longer. Advances in public health - especially vaccines, penicillin, but also basic sanitation and hand washing - have driven a phenomenal reduction in diseases. Once countries’ health systems improve and their citizens live longer, they can begin to reap a demographic dividend.
The single most effective lever is to reduce child mortality. In most poor countries, mortality is highest among young children (below the age of 5), especially infants (below 1 year). Once children reach the fifth birthday, their chances to live a long life improve dramatically.