Proportional Representation in Nigeria: Challenges and Prospects

Proportional representation (PR) is an electoral system where subgroups of an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. The concept primarily applies to political divisions, such as political parties, among voters. The aim of such systems is that all votes cast contribute to the result so that each representative in an assembly is mandated by a roughly equal number of voters, and therefore all votes have equal weight.

Under other election systems, a slight majority in a district - or even simply a plurality - is all that is needed to elect a member or group of members. PR systems provide balanced representation to different factions, usually defined by parties, reflecting how votes were cast. Where only a choice of parties is allowed, the seats are allocated to parties in proportion to the vote tally or vote share each party receives.

Exact proportionality is never achieved under PR systems, except by chance. The use of electoral thresholds that are intended to limit the representation of small, often extreme parties reduces proportionality in list systems, and any insufficiency in the number of levelling seats reduces proportionality in mixed-member proportional (MMP) or additional-member systems. Nonetheless, PR systems approximate proportionality much better than single-member plurality voting (SMP) and block voting.

PR systems also are more resistant to gerrymandering and other forms of manipulation. Some PR systems do not necessitate the use of parties; others do. To achieve that intended effect, proportional electoral systems need to either have more than one seat in each district (e.g., single transferable vote or STV), or have some form of compensatory seats (e.g., mixed-member proportional representation apportionment methods).

There are many different electoral systems that have been used or proposed to achieve proportional representation. Party-list PR is the most commonly used version of proportional representation. Each voter casts a vote for a single party and each party is allocated seats based on its share of the vote. The seats are assigned to party-affiliated candidates on the parties' electoral lists.

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Just a few party-list PR systems use overall country-wide vote counts. These include the Netherlands and Israel. Others count vote shares in separate districts and allocate seats in each part according to the party's vote count in the district.

Types of Party-List PR Systems

  • Closed list systems: Each party lists its candidates according to the party's candidate selection process. This sets the order of candidates on the list and thus, in effect, their probability of being elected.
  • Ley de lemas: An intermediate system formerly used in Uruguay, where each party (Lema) presents several closed lists (sublemas), each representing a faction or specific platform.
  • Open list systems: Voters may vote for one person, or for two or more, or vote for a party list but indicate their order of preference within the list.
  • Localized list systems: Parties divide their candidates in single member-like constituencies, which are ranked inside each general party list depending by their percentages.
  • Two-tier party list systems: These operate similarly to mixed-member proportional systems or additional member systems.

An example election where the assembly has 200 seats to be filled is presented below. Every voter casts their vote for the list created by their favourite party and the results of the election are as follows (popular vote). This is done by a proportional formula or method: for example, the Sainte-Laguë method - these are the same methods that may be used to allocate seats for geographic proportional representation (for example, how many seats each state gets in the US House of Representatives).

Votes and seats often cannot be mathematically perfectly allocated, so some amount of rounding has to be done. The various methods deal with this in different ways, although the difference is reduced if there are many seats - for example, if the whole country is one district.

In practice, party-list PR is also more complicated than in the example, as list PR used by countries often use more than one district, two or three tiers (e.g. local, regional and national), open lists and electoral thresholds.

The single transferable vote is an older method than party-list PR, and it does not need to involve parties. Instead of the process used in list PR, where parties put forward ordered lists of candidates from which winners are drawn in some order, under STV voters vote directly for candidates, who run by name. Instead of each voter only marking their first preference, as in FPTP and list PR, under STV a voter has opportunity to rank two or more candidates by preference, with only one marked preference used to place the vote.

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STV uses preferential ballots. The ranking is used to instruct election officials as to how the vote should be transferred in case the first preference is marked for an unelectable candidate or for an elected candidate who has an excess of votes needed to guarantee election. Each voter casts one vote. The district used elects multiple members (more than one, often 3 to 7, with 37 being the current maximum use in a government election in the world).

Because parties play no role in the vote count, STV may be used for nonpartisan elections. A large proportion of the votes cast are used to actually elect someone, so the result is mixed and balanced, with no one voting block taking much more than its due share of the seats.

Mixed-Member Proportional Representation Explained

Counting votes under STV is more complicated than under first-past-the-post voting, but the example belows shows how the vote count is performed and how proportionality is achieved in a district with 3 seats. In reality, districts usually elect more members than that in order to achieve more proportional results.

A risk is that if the number of seats is larger than, for example, 10 seats, the ballot will be so large as to be inconvenient and voters may find it difficult to rank the many candidates, although 21 are elected through STV in some elections. In many STV systems, voters are not required to mark more choices than desired. Under STV, the quota, the share of the vote that guarantees election, is determined beforehand. The Droop quota is commonly used.

In a three-seat district, any candidate who earns more than 25 percent of the vote is declared elected. Conversely, widely respected candidates can win election even if they receive relatively few first preferences. They do this by benefiting from strong subordinate preference support.

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In the first count, the first preference (favourite candidate) marked on each of the ballots is counted. Candidates whose vote tally equals or exceeds the quota are declared elected as shown in the example below. Next, surplus votes belonging to those already elected, votes the candidates received above the quota (votes that they did not need to be elected), are transferred to the next preference marked by the voters who voted for them.

Continuing the example, suppose that all voters who marked first preference for Jane Doe marked John Citizen as their second choice. Based on this, Jane Doe's surplus votes are transferred to John Citizen. John Citizen achieves the quota and so is declared elected to the third and last seat that had to be filled.

In this example, the district result is balanced party-wise. No one party took all the seats, as frequently happens under FPTP or other non-proportional voting systems. The result is fair - the most popular party took two seats; the less popular party took just one. As well, the most popular candidates in each party won the party's seats.

Under STV, to make up a 200-seat legislature as large as in the examples that follow, about 67 three-seat districts would be used. Districts with more seats would provide more proportional results - one form of STV in Australia uses a district with 21 members being elected at once.

MMP combines election of individual district members with election of some members due to their party's vote share. Additional compensatory members are then elected from party lists to achieve an overall party share proportional to the vote (according to an allocation method much like in party-list PR). Voters sometimes have two votes, one for the election of their district representative and one fused to allocate party list top-up seats. In some system such as Denmark's, each voter casts just one vote.

The main idea behind MMP is that the levelling seats act as compensation. The list-PR seat allocation is dependent on votes cast (in some systems on the party list votes cast, separately from the district votes) and on the results of the district-level election contests. The importance of the compensatory top up is particularly important when single-member districts are used in the district elections.

MMP was invented for the German Bundestag after the Second World War, and its use has spread to Lesotho, Bolivia, New Zealand and Thailand.

The proportionality of MMP can be compromised if the ratio of list to district seats is too low, as it may then not be possible to completely compensate district seat disproportionality.

Electoral Systems in Various Countries

Now that we have covered some key terms that are necessary to describe electoral systems, it is time to look at what type of electoral systems and rules each of our course countries possesses.

Country Electoral System/Electoral Rules Examples/Explanations
UK The United Kingdom’s House of Commons members are directly elected under single member district, first-past-the-post rules This system is most similar to the US electoral system. In other words only 1 representative per district and whomever wins the most votes in that district is the one that is elected.
Mexico Mexico’s Congress of the Union has two chambers: the Chamber of Deputies, which has 300 members directly elected in single-member districts by plurality and an additional 200 members elected by a proportional representation, party list system; and the Chamber of Senators, which has 96 members elected in three seat constituencies and 32 by proportional representation; gender quotas in the party list system have helped increase female participation. Chamber of Deputies: Just like the UK for 300 members, if candidate A gets more votes than candidate B, then candidate A represents the district in Congress. For the 200 members elected by proportional vote.
Nigeria Members of the Nigerian House of Representatives are directly elected in single-member districts with representatives from each of Nigeria’s states; the number of representatives elected from each state is based on population size, whereas the Senate has three members directly elected from each of Nigeria’s 36 states; two major parties have alternated control of the National Assembly. The House of Representatives is like the UK’s House of Commons single-member districts from each of Nigeria’s states, the number of representatives for each state is dependent on population.
Russia Changes to state Duma elections in Russia have returned it to a system in which half of the representatives are directly elected from single-member districts and the other half are chosen through elections that use proportional representation with a threshold. Is split so that one half of the representatives are directly elected from single-member districts, like our discussion with the UK. So again if candidate A gets more votes than candidate B, candidate A represents the district in the Duma.
China The National People’s Congress of China selects members indirectly through a series of local and regional elections. Elections are based on a hierarchical electoral system, whereby local People's Congresses are directly elected, and all higher levels of People's Congresses up to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the national legislature, are indirectly elected by the People's Congress of the level below.
Iran Iran’s Majiles members are directly elected in single-member and multi-member districts, which sometimes requires a second round of voting; candidates are vetted by the Guardian Council, and the legislative body lacks formal political party structures; a small number of the 290 seats in the Majles are reserved for non-Muslim minorities, such as Christians, Jews, and Zoroastrians. Majles are elected in single-member and multi-member districts, where a single-member winner takes all or first-past-the-post.

Challenges and the Path Forward for Nigeria

The chairman of Nigeria’s electoral commission, Mahmood Yakubu, faces an uphill task. Complaints that Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission can’t deliver free and fair polls have been growing louder. In particular, the 2019 elections came in for a heavy dose of criticism on the grounds that they were not totally free and fair.

Yakubu’s hand could be strengthened if the National Assembly finally approves amendments to the country’s 2010 electoral act. Delivering credible elections in 2023 will show how well the Commission is successful under his leadership.

The electoral commission has conducted elections at national and state levels since 1999 when the country returned to democratic rule. Its performance reached a nadir in 2007. The committee submitted its report 16 months later. It recommended various reforms to strengthen electoral administration, including:

  • Changing the funding model for the electoral commission to ensure it was left free of government interference.
  • The integration of the independent electoral commissions of each state into the commission’s structures.
  • Shifting the burden of proof in election petitions from the petitioner to electoral commission.
  • The introduction of a mixed electoral system, with an introduction of elements of proportional representation.

Yakubu was able to incorporate lessons learnt from past elections to build on the workings of the commission. Other changes include amendments to the Constitution and the Electoral Act which empower the Independent National Electoral Commission to de-register parties.

Reports on the 2019 elections show there were interferences with results collation by political party agents and security agencies with the connivance of electoral commission officials. Furthermore, poor logistics and supply of materials resulted in delays and created room for malpractices. And the primaries for the major parties were riddled with allegations of bad practice.

On being sworn in Yakubu made clear that he was intent on improving the integrity of elections under his watch. He announced his commitment to getting the proposed changes to be made through the Electoral Act Repeal and Re-enactment Bill 2021.

Yakubu has also begun consultations across the country to facilitate constituency delimitation to increase the number of polling units to reduce the distance voters have to cover and easy access to voting points.

First, the channels for the distribution and retrieval of election materials must be strengthened. He must also improve the transparency of the collation and transmission of election results. And he must seek greater use of technology, especially electronic accreditation and verification of voters.

He must work with others to reduce vote buying and provide innovative means of reducing electoral malpractices such as the use of violence and ballot snatching. He should also promote internal democracy among political parties.

Lastly, Nigeria needs to review the current first-past-the-post single member district system that continues to make electoral competition a winner takes all game.

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