Climate change in Ghana is having significant impacts on the people of Ghana. The country is experiencing population growth, has a high poverty rate, and its economy is dependent on vulnerable industries like agriculture. Climate change is expected to have different impacts across the country.
Their existing 2015 Intended Nationally Determined Contribution then became their Nationally Determined Contribution, which was reviewed in 2021. Ghana aims to avoid 64 million metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, compared to a business-as-usual scenario for 2020-2030.
This bar chart is a visual representation of the change in temperature in the past 100+ years. Each stripe represents the temperature averaged over a year. The average temperature from 1971 to 2000 serves as the boundary between blue and red colors.
Rising Temperatures and Rainfall Variability
Overall, Ghana has experienced a 1.0 °C increase in temperature since 1960. The drier northern areas have warmed more rapidly than southern Ghana. Northern Ghana has only one rainy season, while southern Ghana has two, and annual rainfall is highly variable. Long-term trends for rainfall are challenging to predict.
Climate change is expected worsen Ghana's water security problems, and this will have socioeconomic consequences. Agriculture and access to safe and reliable drinking water will be impacted. Reduced water supply will have a negative impact on hydropower, which provides 54% of the country's electricity capacity.
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The north of the country, which has a typically hot and dry climate, will become hotter and wetter, and increasing rainfall variability is expected to decrease crop yields, which could drive poverty and migration.
Impact on Health
An increase in waterborne diseases such as cholera and mosquito-borne diseases like malaria is projected. In Ghana, flood-exposed communities have been associated with cholera and non-cholera diarrheal disease outbreaks.
As climate change results in more severe and frequent flooding, water source contamination and the spread of waterborne diseases are expected to increase. Stagnant water bodies which are formed as a result of some flooding occurrences, may support mosquitoes breeding which can cause the increase in the spread of malaria.
According to the World Bank, Ghana's health system is highly vulnerable to the changes in climate, "especially to illnesses like malaria and diarrhea disease ... health issues related to heat, air pollution, and infectious diseases are on the rise with the elderly, youth, and children being particularly vulnerable".
A study conducted in two flood-prone and low-income areas, namely James Town and Agbogbloshie within the Accra Metropolitan Area, revealed that households experience regular cholera outbreaks and a high prevalence of non-cholera diarrhea and other illnesses.
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Carbon Emissions and the Petroleum Sector
In 2021, Ghana's total CO2 emissions from fuel combustion in the energy sector reached 21.397 million tones, highlighting a significant increase of 332% in per-capita emissions since 2000. Despite representing only 0.1% of global emissions from inflammable fuels, this rise is concerning, particularly in international efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. The primary source of these emissions in Ghana was oil burning, which accounted for 66% of the total CO2 emissions from fuel burning. Sector-wise, transportation emerged as the largest contributor, responsible for 47% of the nation's energy-related CO2 emissions, followed by electricity and heat production at 34%. Carbon dioxide (CO2) makes up the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions from the sector, but smaller amounts of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are also emitted.
The Jubilee offshore oil field in the Western Region of Ghana began production in 2010, raising expectations for wealth creation in Ghana. The infrastructure needed to support Ghana's oil industry (storage, shipping, processing) has necessitated the practice of flaring.
Ghana's petroleum sector has experienced significant growth, particularly since the discovery of oil in commercial quantities in the Jubilee fields in 2007. Some of the major oil and gas activities are conducted by international oil companies such as Tullow Ghana, Vitol, Kosmos Energy, and ENI, among others. Their sub-contractors include Schlumberger, Baker Hughes, Weatherford, Ocean Rig, and Technip FMC, among others.
Upstream activities in the Ghanaian petroleum sector include the procurement and refining of crude oil by the nation's only petroleum refinery, Tema Oil Refinery (TOR). Downstream activities include the marketing and distribution of petroleum products by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) and the pre-mixing of petroleum products for other industrial uses. The Ghana National Petroleum Council (GNPC) has the mandate to explore for oil within the nation's territory. Ghana's oil and gas prospects are significant. Recent discoveries appear to indicate oil and gas resources stretch across the country's shoreline from Cape Three Points in the west to Keta in the east. The Volta Basin is also believed to hold oil and gas reserves onshore.
The prices of petroleum products are regulated by an independent board. The nation consumes significant volumes of petroleum products, which are mainly imported.
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Climate Change Institutions and Policies
One of the few important climate change institutions in Ghana is the Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies. The center is located in the University of Ghana and it is involved in conducting various research works and projects with regards to climate change in Ghana. It is also a multidisciplinary faculty which explores areas such as health, resource management, economics and renewable energy.
Ghana signed the Paris Agreement on 22 April 2016 and ratified it on 21 September 2016. In 2015, Ghana developed a framework entitled "Ghana's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution" to outline a plan to reduce carbon emissions and to improve eternity of land use, transportation, and other economic and societal sectors. This plan, after the 2016 Paris Agreement signing, became the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). Ghana has pledged to adopt 34 strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with 9 being implemented independently and 25 dependent on external support. The goal is to cut emissions by 64 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, compared to the total emissions expected between 2020 and 2030.
Climate change adaptation involves modifying or developing structure to help one live with the influence of actual or expected future climate. The goal of adaptation is to reduce the impacts of the harmful effects of climate change (like sea-level rise, more intense extreme weather events, or food insecurity). Ghana's development-both human and economic-is susceptible to climate change.
Around 45,000 Ghanaians are impacted by flooding annually on average, and half of the country's coastline is at risk of erosion and flooding due to sea level rise. Without immediate action, crop and labor productivity will be impacted by rising temperatures and heat stress, and infrastructure and structures will be harmed by more unpredictable rainfall patterns.
Communities across West Africa are among the smallest contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, but they are already feeling the effects of the climate crisis disproportionately. With a growing populace, high poverty rates, and economic dependence on vulnerable industries like agriculture, Ghana is one such West African country at an increased risk of climate vulnerability.
Changes in the global climate are raising the heat in West Africa. Such heat conditions can lead to flare-ups in chronic conditions and diseases, worsen mental health, and increase one’s chances of having a heart attack, getting an infection, or being injured at work. Amid these heat waves, Ghanaians experience volatile rainfall patterns that dangerously affect their daily lives. While flooding impacts an estimated 45,000 Ghanaians every year, drought is also estimated to affect 13% of the country’s population.
In 2020, the country’s direct economic loss from drought was an estimated $95 million USD. Models predict that, thanks to climate change, rainfall could decline a further 12% from 2020 levels by 2050, causing an average direct economic loss of $325 million USD per year by 2050.
Even with an overall decrease in rainfall, future precipitation events that do occur are projected to do so erratically. As of 2021, agriculture employs around 45% of the Ghanaian labor force and contributes roughly 21% of the national GDP. Most of these farm workers operate small, rain-fed farms, which are particularly vulnerable to erratic rainfall patterns influenced by a changing climate. Increased CO2 levels have been found to decrease nutrient density in numerous staple food crops as well. Therefore, as CO2 levels rise, individuals may need to consume more food to receive sufficient levels of the same nutrients.
One of Ghana’s top agricultural products - cocoa - is also vulnerable to rising sea levels. Ghana is the second largest cocoa producer in the world, with approximately 800,000 farm families contributing to the country’s annual production. Most suitable areas for cocoa production exist along Ghana’s coast, and are thus in danger of floods, soil salinization, and coastal erosion. These conditions, along with other agricultural impacts like drought, put the livelihood of hundreds of thousands of families at risk.
Ghana’s food production industry also includes activities such as fishing and livestock herding. The fishing industry, which as of 2019 supported the livelihood of 10% of the Ghanaian population, is under stress due in part to the impact of warming water temperatures on the migratory and reproductive patterns of fish species. The livestock industry, an agricultural subsector that contributed over 8% of the nation’s GDP in 2020, is affected by heat stress and erratic rainfall patterns.
National Adaptation Plan Is Ghana’s Blueprint for Climate Resilience — MaryJane Enchill
Climate change’s impacts on the migratory patterns of herders and increased competition for resources among food producers can exacerbate social tensions and lead to violence.
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