Italy vs South Africa: Women's Rugby World Cup Prediction

This 2025 Women's Rugby World Cup Group D round two fixture will see World No. 8 Italy lock horns with 12th-ranked South Africa on Sunday. The match is scheduled for Saturday, July 5 at 5:10 PM CAT (3:10 PM GMT, 11:10 AM ET) at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria.

Will the Blues bounce back against the Springbok Women after their opening defeat in the tournament? Swys de Bruin's side will aim to build on this victory with another formidable showing.

Broadcast Information

  • UK: BBC One, iPlayer, Sky Sports, Fubo TV
  • USA: FOX

Team News

Italy Women

Elisa Giordano continues as captain for Italy. Silvia Turani, a versatile front row from Harlequins, will play an important role during their campaign.

South Africa Women

South Africa will rely on the experience and skill of Nolusindiso Booi, their most-capped women’s rugby player. Booi earned her 50th cap earlier and is a dominant force in the second row, known for her strength in set pieces and relentless work rate.

South Africa boasts a very physical squad with plenty of talent. At flyhalf, Libbie Janse van Rensburg directs the play alongside stalwart scrumhalf Nadine Roos. Inside centre Aphiwe Ngwevu is known for her powerful runs through the middle of defenses.

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Damian Willemse will start at fullback for the Springboks - playing his first match for the team since the 2023 Rugby World Cup final win over New Zealand. Jesse Kriel retains the captaincy with Siya Kolisi out injured, having pulled out shortly before the game against the Barbarians last week. Faf de Klerk is back from injury, but has been benched with Morne van den Berg the starting scrumhalf. Eben Etzebeth starts at lock alongside Lood de Jager, with Jean Kleyn out injured.

Recent Form

Italy Women

Italy Women's rugby team had mixed results in their recent matches. On 23 August 2025, they lost to France Women 24-0 in the World Cup. Before that, they won 33-15 against Japan Women on 9 August 2025 in a friendly match. In the Six Nations (SN) competition earlier this year, Italy defeated Wales 44-12 on 27 April 2025 and won 25-17 against Scotland Women on 13 April 2025. However, they lost to France 34-21 on 19 April 2025. They were beaten 54-12 by Ireland on 30 March 2025 and 38-5 by England on 23 March 2025. However, they secured wins over South Africa Women (23-19) and Wales Women (8-5) in October 2024 in the WXV2 tournament.

Italy failed to score in a match for the first time in nine games following a heavy defeat in their 2025 Women's Rugby World opener against France. The Blues conceded 10 points in the first half and 14 in the second to suffer a heavy 24-0 shutdown. This result ended their two-match winning run. Notably, Fabio Roselli's side have won three of their last five matches, including their two encounters with South Africa. They will be desperate to bounce back to boost their knockout-stage hopes.

The Italians come into this fixture off the back of a mixed bag of results. There is no denying that the improvement in their ability is there for all to see, but they seemingly struggle to replicate their best rugby against good opponents. Their structure and discipline make them a tough side to break down at times, but their lack of consistency will always count against them in big moments.

South Africa Women

South Africa got off to a winning start in their 2025 Women's Rugby World Cup opener, thrashing 33rd-ranked tournament debutants Brazil 66-6. Blue Bulls Women flanker Aseza Hele led the offensive charge for the Springbok Women, scoring a hat-trick of tries to secure the emphatic victory.

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The team comes off a close 23-19 loss to Italy in the WX 2 but has won four of its last six matches.

The Springboks will face Italy in their first official Test of the season on Saturday at Loftus Versfeld, heading into the game buoyed by a 54-7 drubbing of the Barbarians at Cape Town's DHL Stadium last weekend.

There is no denying the fact that the Springboks are in red-hot form at the moment. They come into this second test off the back of yet another demolition job against the Barbarians and Italy last time out. They have always been a side with a strong reliance on their forward pack and happy to transfer pressure at set piece time. However, to add even more impotence to their ability, the arrival of Tony Brown has added an attacking nuance and fluidity that makes this South African side even more dangerous.

The Springbok Women have shown steady improvement over the past two years and are arguably the most improved team in World Rugby. They are currently ranked 12th in the world and are making their fifth consecutive appearance in the Women’s Rugby World Cup since debuting in 2006. In the previous edition, they failed to progress past the pool stage after three straight defeats.

Key Players to Watch

Italy

  • Michele Lamaro: He will likely lead by example once again here, welcoming the physical battle of the South Africans while also seeing his side take the game to their opponents. He will have a big role to play in their broken play, so keep an eye on him here.
  • Paolo Garbisi: His attacking vision is without question, but whether or not he is able to bring that aspect of his game to an environment of physical and dominant opposition remains to be seen. Nevertheless, Italy will look to him for all of their points.
  • Tommaso Menoncello: The youngster keeps attracting the attention of the rugby community. His performances are consistent and bring with them a powerful and aggressive physicality to his attacking endevours. Keep a look out for his attacking advances here.

South Africa

  • Pieter-Steph du Toit: He is a world class flanker and currently seen as the best player in world rugby. He will likely dominate amongst the forwards and add incredible value to the battle at the breakdown. Keep an eye on him here.
  • Handre Pollard: If he gets back into this starting lineup, expect a big showing from the veteran number 10. His experience provides leadership and reliability even at the most difficult times. He has a fight on his hands for his position and so, expect him to flex his experience and ability here.
  • Cheslin Kolbe: What more does one say about Kolbe? He is arguably amongst the most dynamic players in the world at the moment and whether it is broken play or patient build ups, he is an absolute nightmare for defending teams.

Head-to-Head Statistics

Both teams, Italy W and South Africa W, will be facing each other for the third time this period.

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Date Team 1 Score Team 2
19/11/2022 South Africa 63-21 Italy
04/10/2019 South Africa 49-3 Italy
25/11/2017 Italy 6-35 South Africa

Over the most recent 9 head-to-head results between these competitors, Italy have got the victory 1 times and South Africa have come out on top on 8 occasion.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability

The early online betting suggests that the Boks will once again run through their Italian visitors!

  • South Africa: 1/14 (1.07) - 93%
  • Italy: 14/1 (15.00) - 6%

According to Stats Insider's analytics model, the South Africa W (-5.5) are predicted to cover the line 55% of the time, while the 45.5-point over/under is expected to stay over 55% of the time.

Match Prediction

Italy infamously beat Allister Coetzee's Springboks in 2016, but that has been their only win against South Africa in 16 attempts. However, this is arguably one of the strongest eras for Italian rugby.

In 2024, the Azzurri picked up three wins against tier one nations - their joint-best tally in their history, matched only by 1997. Furthermore, 2024 was the first year in which they beat three separate tier one teams, as the 1997 calendar year saw them beat Ireland twice.

In 2025, they have only one win against a tier one team to date, but it was an important one as they beat Wales in a match which ultimately ensured Italy did not finish bottom of the Six Nations.

Italy has had a tough time against the Red Roses in recent seasons, scoring only 11 points in their last seven meetings. However, based on their recent form, I believe Italy will secure a victory in their upcoming match.

The Springboks, the current World Champions, obviously head into this game as heavy favourites. However, Gonzalo Quesada's side cannot be completely written off.

After a 73-6 win over Namibia last weekend, Italy will be looking to carry that form into successive clashes against the Welwitschias' more illustrious neighbours.

The hosts are simply primed and ready to produce another commanding display in front of their home fans. The power of their forward pack, coupled with the expansive nature of their backline, make this side a formidable challenge for any opponent. Back them to come away with yet another statement victory here.

Suggested Bets:

  • South Africa (-32.5): The Boks have shown very little mercy in their more recent encounters, back them to claim another impressive win on home soil here.
  • Total Points (Over 48.5): If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it! This betting angle once again suggests incredible value. The attacking nature of the hosts and the insecurity of their Italian visitors suggests getting stuck into the points market once again here

Value Bets:

  • Pollard (Highest point scorer): Given his attacking flair as well as his ultra-consistent kicking ability, backing Pollard to come with the greatest number of points scored on the day seems a set bet.
  • Italy (First Try Scored): Once again we are backing the visitors to get off to a flying start here and open the scoring.

Our Betting Options:

  • Italy W to win with odds at 1.83 Odds on 1Xbet bookmaker.
  • Under 47.5 total with odds at 1.83 on Betway bookmaker.

🚨ITALY CALLS OUT THE REFS — AND QUESTIONS THE SPRINGBOKS’ VICTORY | SPRINGBOKS NEWS

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tags: #Africa