Conflict Map of Africa: Evolving Dynamics and Key Events

Nov 06, 2025 0

Africa has, in recent decades, experienced a growing number of conflicts that are challenging to monitor and even more difficult to resolve peacefully. This article examines the rapidly changing geography of armed conflicts on the continent, focusing on regions most likely to experience political violence, factors encouraging the spread of armed conflicts across countries, and the impact of military interventions on the spatial dynamics of these conflicts.

Map of African Union members and disputed territories.

Spatial Conflict Life Cycle

The growing availability of geospatial data that document how violent actors are connected and where their attacks take place offers a unique opportunity to produce a more integrated approach to the evolution of armed conflicts. The concept of “spatial conflict life cycle” allows for spatializing conflict networks over time by bringing together spatial analysis, network analysis, and temporal analysis. African armed conflicts express regularities in the way violence is spatially and temporally distributed.

Areas of Operations

Conflicts involving non-state actors frequently involve a vast array of armed groups arranged in a constantly shifting network of alliances and rivalries. The geographic proximity of actors relative to each other is a key driver of the conflict’s social network structure. The concept of “Areas of Operations,” a new method of spatializing actors in a conflict region, helps address this. At any given moment in time, the spatial extent of an actor’s range can be estimated by fitting a polygon or polygons around the events in which the actor has participated.

Humanitarian Interventions

International humanitarian interventions are intended to alleviate extensive human suffering within defined or internationally recognized borders of a sovereign state. Recent humanitarian interventions are implemented in countries experiencing internal conflicts or civil wars, questioning existing sovereign authority. Borders are often questioned and de facto blurred and porous, especially in many formal colonial territories across Africa.

Farmer-Herder Conflicts

Existing studies of farmer-herder conflicts have paid little attention to the moral economy and critical geopolitics dimensions. Changes in the moral economy, influenced by the neoliberal agenda within the larger political economy structure, are at the core of the conflict, exacerbated by territoriality and identity construction. The monetization of resource access driven by the neoliberal agenda of the Nigerian state is a fundamental cause of the conflict, challenging the predominant explanations.

Map of Nigeria showing the study area.

Regional Hotspots and Key Events

Cameroon

Islamist militants in northern Cameroon carried out a series of abductions in December, highlighting a concerning trend for civilians, as insurgents increasingly used kidnapping for ransom to generate revenue and resources for their operations in 2024. The specific use of kidnapping by Boko Haram Jama’atu Ahl as-Sunnah li-Da’awati wal-Jihad (JAS) and Islamic State of West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Cameroon more than doubled in 2024 compared to 2023. The events in December came after the Chadian military’s Operation Haskanite forced many Boko Haram militants over the border into Cameroon in November, likely driving insurgents to further rely on kidnapping and theft from Cameroonian civilians. International military collaboration in the Lake Chad region under the Multinational Joint Task Force has faced scrutiny from the Chadian government due to perceived unequal contributions, a failure to secure borders, and unwillingness to combat insurgents, and civilians face increasing danger without coordinated military operations. Abductions in December targeted numerous farmers and pastoralists, often coinciding with displacement and the looting of food and livestock.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

In December, the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) re-initiated direct operations in North Kivu alongside M23 rebels, bringing an end to five months of reduced violence involving the RDF. Despite ACLED data recording only three violent events related to the RDF between June and the end of November, over a dozen battles involving the RDF broke out in the first seven days of December. These began on 1 December when the RDF provided direct support for M23 rebels during clashes with the Congolese military (FARDC) and allied fighters under the Wazalendo coalition in several areas of Lubero, North Kivu. Subsequently, Angolan-mediated peace negotiations fell apart on 15 December after Rwanda demanded that the Congolese government negotiate directly with M23 rebels. Battles involving the RDF continued throughout late December and early January, including the takeover of the administrative capital of Masisi territory by M23 and RDF. The ongoing proxy fighting after the Kinshasa and Kigali governments signed peace agreements and ceasefire deals in mid-2024 increased the likelihood that the RDF would directly re-engage in the DRC.

Nigeria

Nigerian military forces under Operation Fansan Yamma targeted several bandit leaders in the northwestern Zamfara and Katsina states in December. This included the killing of bandit leader Alhaji Ma’oli, who had imposed widespread illegal taxes on civilians in Zamfara’s Tsafe Local Government Area. Military operations carried out in December utilized several joint air and ground operations, often in collaboration with local defense militias, to combat bandits and dismantle their camps. While military forces and allied groups killed several heads of bandit groups in Katsina and Zamfara in 2024, this has done little to stem violence in these states: Violence escalated in Katsina and Zamfara in 2024 compared to 2023 as groups increasingly targeted civilians, fought against state forces and allied groups, and competed for power amongst themselves.

Map of Banditry in Northwest Nigeria.

Sahel Region

On 15 December, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) approved the withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from the regional bloc. ECOWAS introduced a six-month grace period in the hope that these countries, now cooperating separately through the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), will reverse their decision. The withdrawal is expected to have economic and diplomatic consequences as the central Sahel grapples with ongoing instability that has spread to coastal West Africa.

A spate of events in each of the central Sahel countries in December paints a worrying picture of the security situation in the region. In Mali, military troops (FAMa) and Wagner forces reportedly killed 14 civilians in the commune of Gargando, Tombouctou region. In Niger, Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) militants likely shot dead 21 passengers on a bus in Arboudji and clashed with military forces in nearby Petelkole, Tillaberi region, resulting in dozens of reported fatalities. Further south, al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM militants are believed to have carried out deadly attacks in December on the Beninese military in the northern regions of Alibori and Atacora, reportedly killing six soldiers and wounding several others. Deadly attacks by insurgents continued on 8 January, striking a large military base in Karimama commune near the border. JNIM claimed more than 30 soldiers were killed. These attacks underscore JNIM’s growing presence in coastal West Africa.

Somalia

Since November, armed clashes between state troops and federal soldiers have rocked the southern state of Jubaland, after the state government established an election commission and severed ties with Mogadishu’s federal government. The Jubaland government held regional elections on 25 November, won by incumbent President Ahmed Mohamed Islam who is also known as ‘Madobe.’ Tensions escalated into violent confrontations in Ras Kamboni, before spreading in December to Afmadow, Badhaadhe, and Doolow districts.

Sudan

Sudan’s al-Jazirah state was the site of heavy clashes in December, with both Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) claiming territorial advances in the agriculturally significant region. Contestation over al-Jazirah initially rose one year ago in December 2023, with severe implications for many internally displaced people and humanitarian aid in the capital of Wad Madani. The SAF have made a renewed push to regain control of al-Jazirah state since the desertion in October of senior RSF Al Jazirah commander, Abu Aqla Keikel, to the SAF. The state capital eventually fell to the SAF in early January. In 2024, territorial exchanges between conflict parties increased by a third compared to 2023, pointing to the relative mobility of the conflict.

Read also: Amazing Facts About Africa

The following table summarizes key conflict events and their impacts across different African regions:

Region	Conflict Event	Impact
Northern Cameroon	Increased abductions by Boko Haram and ISWAP	Revenue generation for insurgents, increased danger for civilians
North Kivu, DRC	Re-initiation of direct operations by RDF alongside M23 rebels	Escalation of violence, breakdown of peace negotiations
Northwestern Nigeria	Military operations against bandit leaders	Limited success in stemming violence, continued targeting of civilians
Sahel Region	Withdrawal of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger from ECOWAS	Economic and diplomatic consequences, regional instability
Jubaland, Somalia	Armed clashes between state troops and federal soldiers	Escalation of tensions, violent confrontations
Al-Jazirah, Sudan	Heavy clashes between RSF and SAF	Severe implications for IDPs and humanitarian aid