Aircraft Crash Statistics in South Africa: An Overview of Aviation Safety

Nov 13, 2025 0

Aviation is one of the safest ways to travel, with commercial aviation achieving zero fatal accidents in 2023 and a 38.5% drop in accident rates compared to 2022. Over the past three decades, aviation safety has consistently improved. Moreover, the long-term story of aviation safety is one of continuous improvement. A decade ago, the five-year average (2011-2015) was one accident for every 456,000 flights. Today, the five-year average (2020-2024) is one accident for every 810,000 flights.

However, aviation safety varies widely across the globe, with more developed regions typically achieving lower accident rates. Despite advancements across the industry, the safety gap between private and commercial flights remains stark, with private aviation showing 25 times more risk than commercial operations.

The International Air Transport Association's (IATA) released its 2024 Annual Safety Report. Even with recent high profile aviation accidents, it is important to remember that accidents are extremely rare. There were 40.6 million flights in 2024 and seven fatal accidents. There were 244 on-board fatalities in 2024, compared to the 72 fatalities reported in 2023 and the five-year average of 144. We honor the memory of every life lost in an aviation accident with our deepest sympathies and ever greater resolve to make flying even safer.

Note that the December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines aircraft in a conflict zone is excluded from accident classification in this safety report. Accidents and incidents related to conflict zones are considered security-related events and are not included in this report. “No civil aircraft should ever be a target-deliberate or accidental-of military operations.

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Accident Rates and Regional Comparisons

According to IATA's 2024 Safety Report, accident rates per million flights show a clear contrast:

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North America: 0.55
Africa: 4.63
Asia-Pacific: 0.78
Europe: 1.40
Latin America/Caribbean: 0.87

Africa recorded 10 accidents in 2024, raising the all-accident rate from 8.36 to 10.59 per million sectors, exceeding the five-year average of 8.46. With 10 accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate rose from 8.36 per million sectors in 2023 to 10.59 in 2024, exceeding the five-year average of 8.46. Africa (AFI) recorded the highest accident rate, though the fatality risk remained at zero for the second year in a row.

In contrast, other regions showed varying trends:

Asia-Pacific recorded seven accidents in 2024, raising the all-accident rate from 0.92 to 1.04 per million sectors, still below the five-year average of 1.10. Fatality risk remained at 0.15.
The Middle East and North Africa recorded two accidents in 2024, improving the all-accident rate from 1.12 to 1.08 per million sectors, below the five-year average of 1.09. Fatality risk has remained zero since 2019.
With 12 accidents, the all-accident rate improved from 1.53 per million sectors in 2023 to 1.20 in 2024 and was better than the region’s five-year average of 1.26. Fatality risk has remained zero since 2020.
With seven accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate increased from 0.92 per million sectors in 2023 to 1.04 in 2024 but remained below the five-year regional average of 1.10. Fatality risk was unchanged from 2023 at 0.15.
With two accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate improved from 1.12 accidents per million sectors in 2023 to 1.08 in 2024 and was also better than its five-year average of 1.09. Fatality risk has remained zero since 2019.
With no accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate improved from 1.05 accidents per million sectors in 2023 to zero in 2024, an improvement over the region’s five-year average of 2.49. Fatality risk has remained zero since 2022.
With nine accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate increased slightly from 0.95 per million sectors in 2023 to 1.02 accidents in 2024. This rate is on par with the region’s five-year average accident rate of 1.02. The fatality risk rate increased from zero in 2023 to 0.03 in 2024.
With a single accident, the all-accident rate increased slightly from zero accidents per million sectors in 2023 to 0.13 in 2024. This was better than the region’s five-year average of 0.16 accidents per million sectors. Fatality risk has remained zero since 2022.
With five accidents in 2024, the all-accident rate increased from 0.73 accidents per million sectors in 2023 to 1.77 accidents in 2024. This was better than the five-year average of 2.00. The fatality risk increased from 0.00 in 2023 to 0.35 in 2024.

Common Accident Types and Contributing Factors

Most Common Accidents: Tail strikes and runway excursions were the most frequently reported accidents in 2024, underscoring the importance of take-off and landing safety measures. The most common accident types in 2024 were tail strikes, followed by runway damage and runway excursions. The most common accident types in 2024 were runway excursions, followed by those related to landing gear. Forty percent of all accidents involving AFI-based operators, were on turboprop aircraft.

The type of aircraft and its mission profile also play a role in safety. For instance, in 2023, turboprop aircraft reported a hull loss rate of 0.57 per million flights and 0.31 fatalities per million flights, while jets had no hull losses and just 0.01 fatalities per million flights.

Human factors play a critical role in aviation safety, particularly when it comes to pilot training.

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Specific Accident in South Africa

Circumstances: Flight SA8625 departed from Cape Town International Airport on a domestic scheduled flight to George Airport (FAGG) with three crew members and 32 passengers on board. The weather at FAGG was overcast with light rain, and the aircraft was cleared for an instrument landing system approach for runway 11. It touched down between the third and fourth landing marker.

According to the air traffic controller, the landing itself appeared normal, but the aircraft did not vacate the runway to the left as it should have. Instead, it veered to the right, overran the runway and rolled on past the ILS localiser. Realising that something was wrong, he activated the crash alarm. The cockpit crew did not broadcast any messages to indicate that they were experiencing a problem. The aircraft collided with eleven approach lights before bursting through the aerodrome perimeter fence and coming to rest in a nose-down attitude on the R404 public road.

Several motorists stopped and helped the passengers, who evacuated the aircraft through the service door (right front) and left mid-fuselage emergency exit. The aerodrome fire and rescue personnel arrived within minutes and assisted with the evacuation of the cockpit crew, who were trapped in the cockpit. Ten occupants were admitted to a local hospital for a check-up and released after a few hours. No serious injuries were reported.

Probable cause: The crew were unable to decelerate the aircraft to a safe stop due to ineffective braking of the aircraft on a wet runway surface, resulting in an overrun.

The aircraft crossed the runway threshold at 50 ft AGL at 143 KIAS, which was 15 kt above the calculated VREF speed.
Although the aircraft initially touched down within the touchdown zone the transition back into air mode of 1.5 seconds followed by a 4 second delay in applying the brakes after the aircraft remained in permanent ground mode should be considered as a significant contributory factor to this accident as it was imperative to decelerate the aircraft as soon as possible.
Two of the four main tyres displayed limited to no tyre tread. This was considered to have degraded the displacement of water from the tyre footprint, which had a significant effect on the braking effectiveness of the aircraft during the landing rollout on the wet runway surface.
Several non-compliance procedures were not followed.

Additional Safety Concerns

Safety concerns extend beyond physical risks to include growing digital vulnerabilities. In 2022, 55% of airlines reported experiencing cyber attacks, and 61% of industry professionals noted an increase in potential threats. Data from the IATA Incident Data Exchange (IDX) highlights a sharp increase in GNSS-related interference, which can mislead aircraft navigation systems.

"The sharp rise in GNSS interference events is deeply concerning. Reliable navigation is fundamental to safe and efficient flight operations. While there are several back-up systems in place to support aviation safety even when these systems are affected, these incidents still pose deliberate and unacceptable risks to civil aviation. Reports of GNSS interference-including signal disruptions, jamming, and spoofing-surged between 2023 and 2024.

Delayed or incomplete accident reports deny critical stakeholders-operators, manufacturers, regulators, and infrastructure providers-vital insights that could further improve aviation safety. “Accident investigation is a vital tool for improving global aviation safety. To be effective, the reports of accident investigations must be complete, accessible, and timely. Annex 13 of the Chicago Convention is clear that this is a state’s obligation. Burying accident reports for political considerations is completely unacceptable.