Stretching back centuries, Morocco and Libya share an ancient history of geographical, ethnolinguistic, cultural, and religious connections. Both are Maghreb nations and share a history of Arab conquest and the subsequent adoption of Islam.
However, subsequent contact between the two was derived from various historic incidents. Morocco developed into an independent Arab-Berber kingdom with a distinct identity, while Libya became part of the Ottoman Empire.
The end of the Ottoman Empire saw both Libya and Morocco falling under colonization. Libya was ruled by the Italians, and Morocco by the French and Spanish.
Libya became the first among Maghreb nations to regain independence as a result of World War II and the Italian defeat, while Morocco had to wait until 1956 to gain complete independence from France and Spain.
Let's delve into the intricate dynamics of their relationship, marked by periods of tension and cooperation.
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Historical and Political Context
Politically, their bilateral relations were mostly favorable until 1969, when they began to deteriorate after Mu’ammar Gaddafi deposed King Idris I in a military coup. This launched the start of a frictional relationship, in which Libya became a Maghreb neighbor with antipathetic policies towards Morocco. During Gaddafi’s era, there were various lows, with the most enduring becoming his support for the Polisario Front, a separatist group founded in 1973 and based along the Algerian - Moroccan border. Gaddafi provided them with consequential backing and aid for decades, and his support was initially indispensable for the Front’s armed conflict against Morocco.
Since then, Morocco and Libya entered a tense chapter, as Libya fell under Muammar Gaddafi. Personal hostilities between two rulers soon escalated into national conflict.
Tensions between Libya and Morocco cooled down with the re-integration of Libya to the global community, but distrust between two countries still ran high.
When Mohammed VI visited Libya in 2001, Gaddafi was found to have called him "my son", which was seen as an insult to Moroccan Royal family.
Morocco continued to maintain a unique pro-Western orientation policy, while Libya under Gaddafi maintained a pseudo and unstable policy.
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The 2011 Libyan War occurred as Libyans showed disdains against Gaddafi's dictatorship, and the product of Arab Spring, Morocco also suffered protests.
However, Morocco was quick to throw support to Libyan revolutionaries against Gaddafi Government and denounced him in Arab League; as well as King Mohammed VI offered political reforms.
After the war ended with Gaddafi's death, Morocco expected a great hope of growing tie between two countries.
However, violence within Libya soon escalated into the 2014 Libyan War, which torn down much of the country.
In recent months, Moroccan foreign policy has garnered significant attention amidst heightened tensions with the European Union, talks of further rapprochement with Israel, and stronger stances vis-à-vis its involvement in the Libyan peace process and its claim over the disputed territory of Western Sahara.
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As Morocco’s relationships with its traditional partners in Europe and with the Gulf monarchies became occasionally strained over the last decade, its decisionmakers sought to strengthen the kingdom’s position regionally and internationally through three strategies aiming to promote its diplomatic, political, security, and economic interests: diversifying international partnerships to avoid over-relying on traditional partners and acquiescing to their demands; attracting investment from Asia and Europe by turning the kingdom into an African financial and trade hub; and positioning the country as a regional security partner, stability provider, and mediator by taking an involved role in the Libya peace process and by partially normalizing ties with Israel.
The 2000s marked the strengthening of relations between the kingdom and its counterparts in the Gulf, which have long been traditional partners for Rabat, and which provide it with financial support and backing in regional forums in exchange for security cooperation.
However, between 2017 and 2021, Morocco’s close ties to Qatar and neutral stance during the Saudi and Emirati-led blockade against the latter triggered tensions with Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The kingdom has also clashed with Europe - its largest trade partner, investor, and donor -repeatedly over the last decade, including with Spain and Germany over Western Sahara this year.
Beyond its symbolic significance, the Moroccan state’s historic deal with Israel and the United States has significant security, financial, and diplomatic implications.
In exchange for partial - not full - normalization, the United States recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, pledged $3 billion in investment to its private sector, and agreed to a $1 billion arms sale (pending approval by Congress).
Despite some domestic discontent and regional criticism, there will likely be further rapprochement between Morocco and Israel.
Indeed, the Moroccan foreign minister expressed the kingdom’s intention to take the relationship as far as possible; and Israel’s foreign minister recently announced that he would visit Rabat in mid-August.
The two states signed a cyberdefense accord in July 2021 and are likely to increase security and economic cooperation down the line.
As long as the Biden administration does not reverse its predecessor’s recognition, Rabat so far has no reason to pull out of the deal.
Since 2016, Morocco has intensified its economic and diplomatic presence in sub-Saharan Africa.
Moroccan companies increased cooperation with their sub-Saharan counterparts in various sectors, most notably in telecommunications, insurance, banking, and manufacturing.
In fact, over a period of ten years (2008-2018), Moroccan-African trade rose by 68%; and in 2018, 85% of the kingdom’s foreign direct investment went to sub-Saharan states.
Morocco’s involvement in the region will not only boost its economy and diversify its alliance base but will also make it the West and China’s gateway to Africa - thereby opening the door for triangular trade deals and cooperation.
In fact, economic cooperation with sub-Saharan Africa is closely tied to Rabat’s move to form closer ties with China over the last five years.
The same year Morocco rejoined the African Union, the Bank of China opened its first branch in Morocco, while Morocco’s Bank of Africa opened a branch in Shanghai.
Due to Morocco’s proximity to Europe, China also seeks to establish factories in the kingdom to manufacture goods that can be exported to Europe.
In addition, Chinese construction companies have been involved in Tanger Med - a $10 billion industrial port complex being built in northern Morocco and the largest port in Africa.
In another move towards bolstering the country’s international standing, Moroccan decisionmakers have focused on positioning the kingdom as a regional stability provider and mediator, most notably in Libya.
The Skhirat agreement, which resulted in the international recognition of the Government of National Accord (GNA) as Libya’s sole legitimate authority, was signed in Morocco in 2015.
Most recently, the chairman of the Libyan High Council of State, Khaled al-Mishri, and the speaker of the House of Representatives (HoR), Aguila Saleh, met in Morocco last month to discuss the issue of key institutional positions in Libya.
Rabat hosted a total of four meetings between rival factions to discuss the next steps in Libya’s political process last year, bringing together representatives of the HoR and State Supreme Council as well as parliamentarians from the Tripoli and Tobruk branches of the divided HoR.
Recent Tragedies and International Response
Not one but two disasters have struck in recent days - the earthquake in Morocco and devastating flooding in Libya. On 8 September, Morocco saw its deadliest earthquake since 1960 hit the Atlas mountains and Marrakesh, with the death toll rising to more than 2,800. Three days later, on 11 September, Storm Daniel tore through eastern Libya, flooding the regional capital Benghazi and the surrounding mountains, before breaching two dams to create a deluge that swept entire blocks of the city of Derna into the sea.
On Friday morning, the Libyan Red Crescent said the number of people who had died in the city had risen to 11,000 and was expected to rise further as rescue teams arrived and helped to retrieve more bodies from the mud. Officials said 30,000 people were missing.
The full scale of the disaster may be far greater, as few international aid agencies or news reporters have been able to reach the flood-hit area. This area is controlled not by the government in Tripoli but by a rival warlord.
In both cases, damaged mountain roads have hampered rescue efforts. Moreover, poor and militarised governance systems leave potential international aid untapped. These systems cannot absorb assistance and authorities are wary of allowing foreigners unfettered access.
European expertise could prove vital in the immediate aftermath of these disasters, as well as helping secure survivors’ medium-term needs.
The scale of the devastation demands a quick response, but political obstacles mean aid providers will need to be savvy until they have established working relationships with the relevant authorities.
Morocco and Libya need specialised vehicles to access affected areas, as well as expertise to construct field hospitals and temporary survivors’ camps.
The EU member states with closest ties to Rabat (such as Spain) or Benghazi (such as France) should initiate outreach to the relevant ministries and municipalities to explore how to improve absorption capacity.
Similarly, Europeans will have to work under the oversight of eastern Libya’s military dictator, Khalifa Haftar, to access the affected areas.
The populations of Morocco and Libya are suffering historic disasters.
Despite this, Morocco’s king did not appear until Tuesday. Rabat’s subsequent refusal of aid offers from countries such as France and Algeria seemed political, which stoked sentiments of abandonment and neglect in Morocco’s worst hit regions.
Authorities have since claimed the denials were due to difficulties coordinating a huge international response.
The mismanagement of the disasters is fuelling resentment against local authorities, which may generate instability.
This could result in reputational costs for international actors that would harm Europeans’ strategic interests.
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