The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is a vital institution in Kenya with a mandate to collect, analyze, and disseminate statistical data. KNBS plays a central role in Kenya’s development journey, providing essential economic indicators and ensuring data-driven approaches to education and environmental conservation.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics Headquarters
Historical Context and Evolution of KNBS
To this end, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) was established by the Statistics Act of 2006 to replace CBS. The Act establishes KNBS as a Semi-Autonomous Government Agency incorporated under the Ministry of State for Planning, National Development and Vision 2030.
CBS expanded its operations in the 1960’s and 1970’s both at the headquarters in Nairobi and at the field level. During this period, it undertook a wide range of data collection activities and kept a healthy publication programme. This impetus continued up to the mid 1980’s when CBS greatly expanded its field survey programme to respond to the need for district-level statistical data following the adoption of the District Focus for Rural Development (DFRD) strategy in 1983.
However, a deteriorating trend set in mid 1980’s and continued into the 1990’s. This period was characterized by low level data collection efforts, minimal processing and analysis of collected data and discontinuation of issuance of publications which, in the past, used to be regular features of CBS activities. It was therefore axiomatic that effective measures were needed to reverse this negative trend and to prepare CBS for the challenge of the 21st century.
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Functions and Mandate of KNBS
The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is mandated to generate high-quality economic statistics that can inform and attract investments and help grow the economy. Without better and more accessible data, policymakers may find it difficult to address major problems of economic development including unemployment and climate change.
Key Functions:
- Data Collection: Collecting data through various surveys and censuses.
- Data Analysis: Analyzing collected data to derive meaningful insights.
- Data Dissemination: Disseminating statistical information to the public and policymakers.
- Economic Indicators: Providing essential economic indicators to guide policy and investment decisions.
Re-basing of National Accounts Statistics (NAS)
A month ago, the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) Kenya released a set of re-based and revised National Accounts Statistics (NAS), the culmination of an exercise that started in 2010. Press coverage, reactions from investors and the public have been generally favorable, but some confusion still looms regarding some of the facts and consequences. We wrote this blog post to debunk some of the myths.
NAS, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP), are typically measured by reference to the economic structure in a “base” year. Statisticians sample businesses in different industries to collect data that measures how fast they are growing. The weight they give to each sector depends on its importance to the economy in the base year. As time passes and the structure of the economy changes, these figures become less and less accurate.
Re-basing is a process of using more recently collected data to replace an old base year with a new one to reflect the structural changes in the economy. Re-basing also provides an opportunity to add new or more comprehensive data, incorporate new or better statistical methods, and apply advancements in classification and compilation standards. The current gold standard is the 2008 System of National Accounts (SNA).
The size of the economy is 25% larger than previously thought, and Kenya is now the fifth largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa behind Nigeria, South Africa, Angola and the Sudan. Kenya crossed the lower-middle income country threshold in 2012. The structure of the economy remains largely unchanged in broad sectoral terms.
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Some key implications of GDP re-basing can be viewed through a macroeconomic indicators lens. As mentioned above, the debt-to-GDP and fiscal deficit-to-GDP ratios have declined. However this does not necessarily mean that Kenya should borrow more or even have larger deficits. Even though the capacity of the economy to absorb more debt is larger than we had previously thought, with a larger GDP, the ability to service those debts is a function of tax revenues and export receipts which have remained unchanged.
The re-basing exercise has also exposed structural inadequacies-including the unbalanced growth pattern-which policymakers need to address. Exports as an engine of growth remains stalled and needs to be fired up. Exports of goods and non-factor services as ratio of GDP stand at 16.7% compared to imports at 29%. Despite its potential to balance growth and create jobs, exports are underperforming.
NAS re-basing is a data intensive process and requires a number of firm-based and household-based surveys that are both time consuming and costly. Most of the surveys which enabled the Kenyan re-basing to be undertaken were financed by the World Bank Group and other development partners. Despite the cost, investment in statistics has huge benefits to the country not only in terms of monitoring and evaluation of government policy.
The financial returns can also be significant. Special Data Dissemination Standard) status could translate into a 0.5% savings on yields of sovereign bonds. If we take the Kenya’s USD 2 billion euro bond debut as an example, the country would have saved USD 10 million annually for the duration of the bond. The KNBS has developed a 5 year strategy to improve statistics in Kenya including key milestones towards achieving the SDDS status. The government has requested the Bank Group’s technical and financial support to implement this strategy. The pipeline Kenya Statistics Programs for Results is a USD 50 million credit being designed to answer that call.
The preceding update was effected in 2005 and this recent re-basing release marked the sixth update of the NAS for Kenya since the first official estimates of the domestic product and income were prepared in 1947 by the then East African Statistical Department.
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Kenya’s Economy Has Grown By 25% Following Rebasing Of GDP, According To KNBS
World Bank Support and Program for Results
The World Bank began working with Kenyan authorities in 2007 to tackle the problem of inadequate collection and dissemination of data. The latest project to support this objective started in 2015, with a focus on producing high-quality data with high frequency and timely dissemination.
For example, Kenya collected data to estimate poverty in 2005/6 followed by the next survey in 2015/16 with the official poverty estimates only being released in 2018. However, the World Bank recommends that poverty surveys should be conducted every three years, and released within 12 months of data collection.
With the statistics bureau chronically underfunded, data was collected with paper and pen, rather than using modern technology like tablets that help to minimize transcription errors and can improve the quality and timeliness of data availability. The statistics bureau was and remains understaffed, especially lacking people with the advanced technical skills to crunch data, with staffing shortages leading to delays in the collection and analysis of data.
The World Bank team designed a project around the objective to support the KNBS to generate better and more accessible data to inform policymakers and contribute to strengthening its capacity. That meant, for example, publishing key data on employment on a quarterly basis.
With the Kenya project, the World Bank made the first use of its new Program-for-Results financing instrument in the context of project supporting statistical capacity. “With a Program-for-Results approach, Kenya uses its own institutions and processes to implement each part of the project and pays for it out of its Treasury,” said Johan Mistiaen, lead economist and program leader in the World Bank, who led the design and initial implementation phase of the Program. “Only after the government achieves specific program results does the World Bank disburse funds.” This helps build capacity within the country, enhances effectiveness and efficiency and leads to achievement of tangible, sustainable program results.
“We have created a lot of government ownership,” said the current project leader Utz Johann Pape, senior economist with the World Bank Poverty and Equity Global Practice. “With the new project design, we are now able to focus much more on technical - rather than administrative - processes. This also helps to create a deeper relationship with the government, and especially KNBS, to produce higher-quality results. It is working very smoothly in Kenya.”
The Program included funding and technical assistance for essential data production activities combined with improvements for the quality of data, for example by adhering to international standards while also contributing to an enhanced dissemination system including an online data archive, an advanced release calendar and compliance with international standards in terms of timeliness and frequency of dissemination.
Results of the Program
Since the project began, the statistics bureau has ramped up data collection efforts by implementing new surveys and increasing the frequency of traditional surveys. As part of the Program, the National Statistics Bureau implemented the Kenya Integrated Budget Household Survey, the Micro- and Small-Enterprise Survey, the Census of Establishments, the Integrated Survey of Services and a Survey of Industrial Production as well as the Kenya Continuous Household Survey.
This helped to update key indicators of official statistics (GDP, labor, poverty) and also allowed for the rebasing of GDP, an essential statistical maintenance operation to anchor official statistics. The frequency of updated labor and poverty statistics are increased from every several years to quarterly (labor) and annually (poverty).
It also has improved the quality of data collection by complying with a more advanced set of quality standards and introducing a transparent peer-review process before the dissemination of results. The Program ensures compliance with the International Monetary Fund’s Data Quality Assessment Framework improving the reporting of comparable statistics.
Partnerships and Collaborations
The international development partners included African Development Bank, Food and Agriculture Organization, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Paris 21, Statistics Sweden, Statistics Norway, UKAID, The United Nations Children's Fund and World Food Programme.
A couple of years ago, Kenya’s public sector-led and driven Gender Committee was established but its representation was limited and its scope was restricted to validating gender statistics. The launch of UN Women's Women Count project in Kenya in 2018 presented stakeholders with the perfect opportunity to transform the Gender Committee.
With KNBS as Chair and the State Department for Gender Affairs as co-chair, the IAGSTC’s members now include the Council of Governors (CoG) and National Gender and Equality Commission (NGEC) from government; civil society representatives such as the SDGs Forum Kenya and GROOTS Kenya (a national movement of grass-roots women-led groups); academia, including the University of Nairobi (UoN); and development partners, including UN Women, UNFPA and UNICEF.
“This initiative has been an eye-opener to bring together stakeholders and advance a conversation that has not been a priority,” explains Florence Syevuo, Executive Director of the SDGs Forum Kenya, a 40-member civil society consortium.
Since its establishment, the IAGSTC has met quarterly to coordinate stakeholders, review progress and approve work plans for the Women Count project in Kenya. It has also offered workshops on topical issues and presented opportunities for collaboration, such as UoN students’ use of KNBS data to develop policy recommendations.
This has had a ripple effect, giving rise to more opportunities for the students to showcase and advance their work with national and global stakeholders. A recent case study found that the IAGSTC has positively influenced the operations of the national statistical system, making valuable contributions by building coordination and partnerships.
It found that the IAGSTC has fostered ownership of the global discourse and anchored it on the SDGs. In collaboration with the CoG, the Committee also developed the first-ever county gender data sheets for an initial 10 out of 47 counties in Kenya.
The IAGSTC has even spearheaded the production and use of gender data for new products such as the first-ever Gender and Empowerment chapter in the Kenya Economic Survey in 2020, an important tool in Kenya’s economic planning process. The Committee has also spurred more inclusive gender statistics, integrating citizen-generated data, big data and other sources of complementary data, within agreed standards.
CSOs are now producing and using data to monitor SDG 5 and the IAGSTC supported their contributions to Kenya’s Voluntary National Review (VNR) in July 2020.
“Through the Committee, we have really embraced the art of inclusivity and we are increasingly appreciative of other partners inputs,” says Musyimi.
“We are on the right track and even more impact will be felt going forward,” said Paul Kuria, committee member for the NGEC.
Kenya Economic Survey 2023
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